Earlier this week, Deputy Chief Minister DK Shivakumar completed six years in office as the state Congress president – an eventful tenure that witnessed Congress’s return to power in May 2023 after a dismal performance in successive preceding elections.
The big question haunting his followers is whether he gets his due for turning around the Congress’s fortunes in Karnataka. Many in the party feel the decision will be largely guided by a combination of factors directly linked to the party’s prospects in the 2028 assembly elections, while contributions to its victory in the last election could also be taken into account.
The Congress high command’s reluctance to publicly take an unambiguous stand has allowed the uncertainty to linger on. It has turned out to be the Achilles’s heel for the party that won a thumping majority almost three years ago. It also often gives an impression that the party’s tallest mass leader and the state’s longest-serving Chief Minister Siddaramaiah is on shaky ground, unsure of his tenure. Shivakumar, the claimant for the top post, along with his supporters, is equally unsure of his prospects.
The debate over leadership change is a recurring issue, much to the chagrin of Congress leaders. The CM and the DyCM have long stated that they would abide by the high command’s decision; the latter is playing on the back foot, wary of the consequences of its decisions.
However, party leaders feel that they cannot afford to allow the issue to persist after elections in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Assam, West Bengal, and Puducherry conclude in around two months. Also, in May, the Congress government in Karnataka would complete three years.
Meanwhile, there is a demand within the party for a major reshuffle in the cabinet, and that cannot happen unless the high command takes a stand on the change of guard. First-time MLAs have written to the high command with a request to consider five of them for ministerial berths. Senior legislators are also seeking an opportunity to be a part of the cabinet.
Going forward, not taking a decision may no longer be viable for the party if it is focussed on its prospects in the next elections, rather than being wary of the consequences of its decision. The high command may have its strategy, but the challenge is executing it on the ground. It could get more complicated as the government enters the final stretch of its five-year tenure.
As things stand, Siddaramaiah seems to enjoy the support of the majority of his party MLAs. For them, the AHINDA (Kannada acronym for minorities, backward classes, and Dalits) factor that the CM and his supporters bring to the table is crucial for elections. However, his government’s handling of the issue of internal reservation among the Scheduled Castes is facing flak. It won’t be easy for the government to manoeuvre itself without antagonising any sections of the Scheduled Castes.
Be that as it may, politically, Siddaramaiah is in no mood to hang up his gloves and he keeps subtly asserting himself. His remarks at his assembly constituency Varuna in Mysuru district on Friday indicate that he is in for a long haul.
In Varuna, the CM declared that “in over four decades of political life, I have seen many victories and defeats, but I have never forgotten public service. I will remain dedicated to serving the people until my very last breath.” Two days before that, in his message congratulating Shivakumar on completing six years as state Congress president, Siddaramaiah mentioned the Deputy CM having a bright political future and their collective desire to bring the party to power again in the 2028 polls.
It’s the Siddaramaiah-Shivakumar combination that worked for Congress in the last elections, and any decision would primarily be based on its objective to repeat the same in the next assembly polls. While the CM has the backing of MLAs, Shivakumar is more popular among party cadres.
The debate keeps resurfacing, exposing the Congress to the opposition’s criticism for failing to end the uncertainty despite winning a thumping majority. On his part, Shivakumar seems to be focussed on doing what he is good at: the party’s go-to leader in times of crisis. Currently, he is hosting Congress MLAs from Odisha ahead of the Rajya Sabha polls to prevent them from being approached by opposition parties. He had done it during Ahmed Patel’s RS polls in 2017 and before that, when the Congress government headed by Vilas Rao Deshmukh faced a crisis in Maharashtra.
Shivakumar says, “Where there is work, there is reward.” Is the Congress high command taking note of it?