BENGALURU/BHUBANESWAR: On the eve of a high-stakes Rajya Sabha election in Odisha, an unexpected disciplinary move in the BJD has thrown fresh light on intense political manoeuvring under way, and on how close the Odisha opposition Congress believes it may have come to losing crucial votes.
The drama began when BJD Chief Whip Pramila Mallik issued showcause notices to Baliguda MLA Chakramani Kanhar and Jayadev MLA Naba Kishore Mallick for staying away from three key party briefings ahead of Monday’s vote.
Both legislators were ordered to appear at the BJD headquarters, Naveen Niwas, the residence of BJD supremo Naveen Patnaik, by 9pm Sunday and explain their absence. At first glance, the move appeared to be routine party discipline. But in the arithmetic of the Rajya Sabha contest, the absence of even two MLAs could have dramatically shifted the balance.
In Karnataka, where several Odisha Congress legislators have been corralled in a Bengaluru resort as a precaution, Congress leaders admitted to being disturbed. “It could easily have been us,” one Congress functionary remarked, referring to fears that opposition MLAs could be lured away before the vote.
The fourth Rajya Sabha seat in the 147-member Odisha assembly is delicately poised. The BJP is expected to secure two seats comfortably, while BJD is set to win one. The final seat has become a prestige issue between Opposition-backed candidate Datteswar Hota and BJP-supported independent Dilip Ray.
The opposition combination -- BJD, Congress and Communist Party of India (Marxist) -- appears to have the numbers on paper. Yet, the margin is slender enough for a defection or abstention by even a couple of MLAs to tilt the result. That fragility has triggered what political observers describe as “resort politics”.
Congress legislators were moved to Karnataka under the watch of Deputy CM DK Shivakumar amid apprehensions of inducements and pressure tactics. Congress leaders have accused BJP of engineering defections, which critics say has been enabled by loopholes and slow legal processes.
Over the past decade, several Congress governments have fallen after waves of defections that opposition parties allege were politically orchestrated. Against that backdrop, the sudden disappearance of two BJD MLAs from internal meetings set off alarm bells across Opposition circles.
The show-cause notices were interpreted as a signal that the BJD leadership would tolerate no ambiguity in loyalty as voting approaches. For the Opposition alliance, the episode has underscored how fragile the numbers are. Had even two votes slipped away, the carefully stitched arithmetic could have collapsed, handing the BJP-backed camp a surprise advantage.
Ahead of Monday’s vote, the focus has shifted to whether the two legislators will appear before the party leadership and reaffirm their allegiance, or Odisha’s numbers game still holds the possibility of a last-minute twist. One Congress supporter said, “The last time DKS shielded Congress MLAs during the election of Ahmed Patel, the IT and ED even sent him to jail. Wonder who Congress leaders will support this time.”