THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: An early monsoon is becoming increasingly likely, with favourable weather patterns expected to develop by May 24. Various weather models predict heavy rain thereafter.
While the southwest monsoon typically arrives in Kerala around June 1, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast its onset around May 27, with a margin of error of plus or minus four days. Last year, the monsoon arrived a day ahead of schedule on May 31. If the onset is declared on May 27 or earlier, it would mark the earliest arrival in the past 15 years, with the previous earliest onset occurring on May 23, 2009.
Experts attribute several factors to the early onset. “The monsoon has already reached the Sri Lankan side after making an early appearance in the Andaman Islands. Favourable conditions are strengthening the westerly winds by May 25, while larger climate factors like sea surface temperatures are also supporting the monsoon’s early arrival,” Rajeevan Erikkulam, a meteorologist with the Kerala State Disaster Management Authority, told TNIE.
The IMD officially declared the monsoon’s arrival in the Andaman Islands on May 13, marking an advance of 10 days from the usual schedule.
This season, experts are predicting a change in the usual monsoon pattern. Traditionally, the monsoon begins in the southern regions, moving northward in surges to cover the entire country by July 15. However, this year, the northern districts of Kerala are expected to receive more rain during the initial phase of the monsoon than the southern regions.
“A low-pressure system forming over the Karnataka coast after May 25 could cause a northward tilt in rainfall distribution. As a result, rain intensity will likely be higher in the north than in the south,” Rajeevan said.
While weather models provide a mixed outlook for the overall monsoon season, predictions range from below-normal to above-normal rainfall.