Kerala witnesses another spell of rain fury, debates have erupted over the state’s preparedness and disaster response. And there are not many better to comment on the subject than Kerala State Disaster Management Authority secretary Sekhar Kuriakose, who has been dealing with weather woes for over a decade. In an interaction with the TNIE, Sekhar, who is also chief resilience officer of the State Climate Change Adaptation Mission, opens up about Kerala’s disaster management capabilities, hazard warning system, criticisms faced, concerns over NHAI projects, and fundamental issues that need to be addressed.
Edited excerpts:
Kerala is in the midst of another rain calamity. What’s the current scenario, especially in central Kerala?
We received more than 300mm of rainfall within three hours in the Pampa basin on July 31. Rainfall does not occur at a single point but is recorded by multiple rain gauges. In the Meenachil basin, we recorded more than 200mm. When we say 200mm of rainfall, it’s five times higher than normal daily rainfall. These two rainfall events occurred within three hours. If this volume had occurred over 24 hours, the flood wave would have moved as normal water flow.
Is the number of cloudbursts increasing in Kerala?
After the landslide at Pulloorampara in 2012, the Geological Survey of India (GSI) said it occurred because of a cloudburst. But the official weather monitoring system did not agree with the assessment. Now we have the facility to identify whether an event was caused by a cloudburst, as we have installed 100 weather monitoring stations across the state. With these measurements, we can now say that cloudbursts do occur in certain areas.
Why can’t the possibility of a cloudburst be predicted well in advance?
Cloud formation can only be observed through radar. Though we identified the possibility and issued alerts and messages to people, we could issue an actionable alert only when we had a forecast within a 24-hour window. It is important to get it as a forecast, not nowcast. A minimum 24-hour forecast is needed. If we improve the forecast, we get more time for preparation.
When the Mundakkai landslide happened, the experimental landslide forecast was green because the forecast had not captured the extreme rainfall. Therefore, the GSI system also predicted green. The first chain of hydrometeorological hazards is forecast, not even nowcast.
In this year’s Kalladi landslide, was the alert green?
Kalladi was not a natural landslip. It was a slope-cut failure. A committee has been constituted to find the reason. There were cracks shown in pictures and videos of the place taken three days before. Let’s wait for the committee’s findings.
Why did different agencies present contradictory views after these incidents?
There have been only two occasions when we publicly criticised the India Meteorological Department (IMD). One was during Cyclone Ockhi, when someone within the IMD said that an adequate warning had been issued. This claim was later proved absolutely wrong by a Parliamentary Committee report. The other was during the 2018 floods.
Before that, we had demanded that the IMD install a Doppler radar. An X-band radar is now going to be installed in Wayanad. They have also sought land to install a second one in Kollam. We have never criticised them otherwise.
Lack of real-time forecasting has been a major issue…
We have a five-day forecast, and every three hours we receive a nowcast. We received a red alert at 11:52 pm on July 31 and issued it as a message. At that time, the rain had just started to pour. However, we received 300mm of rainfall within three hours. The water level at Moozhiyar Dam was only at 60 per cent. From that level, it rapidly rose to a stage where the dam had to be opened. Though the IMD can predict the possibility of rainfall, it cannot predict this type of high-intensity rainfall over such a short period. People living in these areas should be aware of regional vulnerabilities. They should also change land-use practices and the way buildings are constructed. This will help us in the long run.
Does KSDMA have a role in town planning or construction?
In Kerala, people live in around 13 restrictive zones. We live near highways, railway lines, coastal zones, forest buffers, wetland buffers, river buffers... We also have hazard zones: red, orange and moderate. Flood-susceptible areas are not constructible. Roughly 25% of our state is forest. Livable areas are less. We have occupied certain areas with affordability as the sole criterion. People came to know about their hazard susceptibility only after we started publishing the maps.
No other state has revealed it. There are so many cases in courts based on red and orange zones and the availability of this information. In 2015, the district disaster management authority of Wayanad brought out restrictions based on the height and footprint of construction in hazard zones. Recently, the High Court division bench made those restrictions applicable to Idukki.
Are these restrictions being followed?
There is no other way. We have also amended the building rules. Any construction that restricts streams is punishable under the Disaster Management Act (DM Act). Our DM Plan of 2016 had self-certification on risk exposure for public projects. But it was not implemented. The DM Plan has the nature of legislation. The court told the government that it should be part of every project. Dr V Venu, the then chief secretary, had issued a circular to this effect. We insist on this checklist when asked for our opinion on any project.
A major concern is that the traditional flow of waterbodies gets disrupted by construction...
National Highways are the prime example. We investigated the Veeramala hills slippage along the Kasaragod National Highway. Based on the district-level team’s alert, we made a report by the GSI pointing out design problems. But it was not complied with. Then we saw similar incidents of slippages.
Who is the monitoring authority as far as the DM Act is concerned?
The DM Act says the departments concerned themselves have to do it. It is their statutory obligation. We are in an engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract regime. From a risk manager’s perspective, an EPC contractor transfers the indemnity to an agency. There is no process through which we can track and find out what really happened after an incident. A lot of projects have to be completed in a short time. It’s a catch-22 situation.
Who has to flag these issues?
We are a statutory authority with a mandate to provide technical support. In Veeramala Kunnu, the district authority asked for support. We have a landslide advisory committee, which referred the case to GSI. We gave the report to the District Disaster Management Authority and National Highways Authority of India for rectification. The question is whether the rectifications were made. NHAI alone can do that; the state government cannot. When we go in for faster development, things may get overlooked.
You sound concerned about NHAI construction…
Seriously, yes. Water concerns, ponding concerns, structural concerns…. we keep telling them this. Collectors too have had meetings with NHAI. Some issues have been rectified, while others need long-term solutions. Our ‘Orange Book’ says the company shall keep a rapid response team during monsoons. They should have equipment to drain floodwaters, and construction shall be suspended at selected points if needed. Fortunately, we have not had that kind of rain this year.
Coming back to rains, has the overdependence on IMD created a limitation for KSDMA?
It’s a legal dependence. All we can do is appeal to the alert-generating agency to capitalise on what is available in the rest of the world, such as assimilating what Skymet or TWS offers. The Central Water Commission also needs such improvements. It’s not possible to deal with flash floods predictively. We have to adapt to a style of dealing with floodwater. There are no immediate or Boolean solutions.
Is our early warning system adequate?
We have a mechanism to disseminate early warnings to all. Earlier it was social, visual, audio and print media. Later, we introduced SMS. We have an app called Cap Sachet, which provides location-wise messages. We introduced 126 sirens. Five each will be set up in Wayanad and Alappuzha. We also have Cell Broadcast, which makes your phone hoot. There is, however, uncertainty with regard to the spatial window. We need a very high-resolution digital model, like Lidar data, to update on-ground changes. To run such a model requires huge computational capacity. We have Mission Mausam to address this. Expanding the number of radars is part of it.
There is criticism regarding warnings issued to fisherfolk…
They should not take the risk. If we say please do not go, it means please do not go. The number of people receiving alerts has increased. There are around 2–2.5 lakh fishermen in Kerala. If you look at the frequency, the number of incidents has substantially reduced. Fisherfolk also have to understand that the sea is changing. The waters and currents are no longer the same.
What steps are being taken to improve the accuracy of weather warnings for fishermen?
INCOIS (Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services) is an advanced institution and has created a massive database. Warnings are disseminated, and we also push information through fisheries stations. More sirens are being installed along the coast. Sometimes people complain that they did not receive an alert in time. That is where the forecast element becomes important.
Suppose fishermen are planning to go to sea at 2pm. If we tell them at 12 noon not to go, they may already have bought fuel, mobilised money and made other preparations for the fishing trip. If we can tell them a day in advance that they should not go fishing, they can plan accordingly. I must make it clear that there has been no failure on the part of KSDMA. We are not the alert-generating agency. The designated alert-generating agency has to provide the alert. We cannot independently decide to issue an official warning.
What are the challenges with the existing early warning dissemination system?
We have repeatedly raised this issue with the Centre. One problem is the delay in SMS delivery, which varies based on the service-provider. That is a limitation of the telecom system.
Universities like CUSAT are actively engaged in weather research. Why can’t KSDMA use their data?
We had written to CUSAT in 2023, seeking real-time data from 120 rain gauges in Wayanad and other stations, along with at least one-day advance, hyperlocal forecasts for extreme rainfall, wind, temperature, cyclones and ocean conditions affecting fishermen. But CUSAT replied that it did not provide operational weather services, as weather forecasting was outside the mandate of its departments. It said the rain-gauge data was maintained by the Hume Centre, not CUSAT, and that it did not have a real-time operational forecasting system.
Why is KSDMA not using alternative weather models in the private sector?
We are not opposed to using alternative models. We have actively sought them. If a model is not available in the public domain or has not been provided by the state to KSDMA, we cannot simply rely on it for official warnings. Even if such a model comes into our hands, we would have to send it to IMD for validation. Only after validation can it be used for official public dissemination.
Now many individuals engage in independent weather prediction…
We are also connected with independent weather observers. We are not averse to taking up anything, but when I speak to the public, I have to stick to the official framework. Furthermore, under the statutory provisions of the DM Act, alerts and warnings are supposed to be issued by notified alert-generating agencies only.
A national bill is also being framed on this line. However, I would say the primary thing to focus on is not the alert system. Alert improvement is only going to help you by 5-10%. Rein in land use and construction practices. That is where we have to strictly bind ourselves. The current climate uncertainty demands two kinds of approach — resist in some places like Chellanam, or in most cases, retreat.
Has the system improved after the 2018 floods?
Weather stations, radars and additional facilities have been set up. We all discuss the Meppadi disaster, but why are we not talking about Vilangadu? There were over 100 landslips, but still only one death was recorded. It is because the DM Plan was activated. Youngsters and the deceased teacher saw our alerts and shifted people from the region. The death toll didn’t rise due to their efforts.
After 2020, wasn’t a flood hazard and landslide susceptibility mapping done?
We have marked the susceptible areas depending on the intensity of the floods. We have done two types of examinations — hazard susceptibility using historic rainfall records, and climate change. We have given this information and custom-made maps to all panchayats and district collectors. We are also moving towards ‘Tsunami-Ready’ certification for nine districts. We have a huge
volunteer brigade in Kerala — 4,500 Aapda Mithra volunteers, all insured. The Yuva Aapda Mitra programme for 11,800 people above the age of 18 is under way through bodies like NCC and NSS. The aim is to increase the number of first responders.
Heatwave is another major issue affecting Kerala…
Heat, again, is interconnected with construction. Kerala is one of the first states to have a heat action plan. We always take an all-hazards approach. If you ask me what needs to be changed first, it brings us to construction practices.
Recently there was a controversy about the CM visiting affected locations. What’s your take on VIPs visiting such locations?
We would prefer VIPs not to visit in the immediate response phase. It’s a global procedure to let local leaders and local systems handle the case. A VIP presence disrupts the entire system. During the 2013 Idukki landslide, Oommen Chandy sir wanted to visit the place at night. But we convinced him otherwise.
Do you feel the Union government ignores the state’s demands for disaster relief? Are there political reasons?
There are norms and some criteria. In 2024, we gave the memorandum but did not receive funds, something which drew the High Court’s criticism. Professional systems do not have much to do with it. We can’t, with certainty, say yes or otherwise.
Odisha used to face a lot of calamities but now seems better able to address them than Kerala...
True and false. They get advanced alerts and have a system in place to address them. People live much inland, unlike the coastal living here. Even when they have a good disaster management system, the Odisha team approached us seeking our help to improve their disaster management system. Moreover, there people comply with directives issued by volunteers. If not, they will be moved. Will this happen in Kerala?
Will it be acceptable in due course of time?
If not, nature will force them to. In the long term, we can be resilient only through adaptation. In Kuttanad, many people have adapted to stilt houses, following our directives after the 2018 floods. But we cannot insist that everybody should follow the same. We need to bell the difficult cat (smiles). That’s why we reiterate — rein in land-use and construction practices.
Considering our population density and space scarcity, is it practical? For instance, is ‘Room for River’ practical in places like Ranni?
(Smiles) We will have to make difficult choices. Sometimes we will have to retreat — that’s the only way. Else, we will keep on suffering. In the Netherlands, if the water board issues a directive, everyone follows without fail. Here, we can’t even trim a tree without a lot of discussions. That said, despite having elaborate measures, the Netherlands faced major floods in 2021. No system can moderate such extremes.
You mean to say people living in floodplains should permanently shift?
They can shift on a temporary basis. But how many times? To resolve it long term, rein in your masterplans and implement them strictly. We need to ensure that it’s not violated at the approval stage. Our issue is not about a lack of systems or legislation. But while enforcing, we get exemptions on various conditions.
Compared with a decade ago, is Kerala better prepared to manage a disaster?
Going by the Central report reviewing disaster management authorities in 2024, Kerala is in fourth place.
The allocation from the exchequer has also gone up. At least 17 disaster management teams across the country, and three from abroad, have sought to study our model. We don’t go announcing what we do. However, if society says we should improve, we are always willing to strive.
After all, I studied this subject as it’s my passion, and that’s why I am here.
TNIE team: Anil S, K S Sreejith, Unnikrishnan S, Shainu Mohan. Aswin Asok Kumar B P Deepu (photos)