KOZHIKODE: Perambra is heading into the assembly elections amid unusual political uncertainty, with shifting alliance signals, internal seat demands, and a recent local body upset combining to make the constituency one of north Kerala’s most unpredictable battlegrounds. What was once considered a relatively secure Left stronghold is now witnessing intense calculations on both sides, as the LDF weighs risk against stability and the UDF senses an opportunity to break through.
Part of the Vadakara Lok Sabha constituency in Kozhikode district, Perambra has traditionally favoured the CPM-led LDF. In 2016, senior CPM leader T P Ramakrishnan defeated Kerala Congress (M) leader Mohammed Ikbal by a narrow margin of 4,101 votes. The close contest signalled that Perambra was competitive despite its Left leanings. By 2021, Ramakrishnan expanded his lead significantly, polling 86,023 votes and winning by over 22,000 votes with a vote share exceeding 52%. At that stage, the LDF appeared firmly in control. However, the political landscape in 2026 looks considerably more complex.
Speculation over a possible realignment by Jose K Mani’s Kerala Congress (M) has once again placed Ikbal at the centre of discussions. Ikbal contested twice in Perambra for the UDF between 2011 and 2016, and later attempted to contest from Kuttiady in 2021 as part of the LDF before withdrawing amid protests from local CPM cadre. That episode continues to influence current seat-sharing conversations.
Party insiders point to an informal assurance reportedly given in 2021 by senior CPM leaders, including the late Kodiyeri Balakrishnan, that Kerala Congress (M) would be compensated in a future election. Perambra is widely viewed as a possible seat under consideration if the party remains within the LDF fold. Strategically, Kerala Congress (M) is believed to be avoiding a renewed confrontation in Kuttiady and instead positioning Perambra as a more viable option, particularly given the presence of Christian migrant panchayats and Ikbal’s long-standing engagement in the constituency.
The LDF, however, finds itself in a delicate position. Retaining Perambra with the CPM could preserve cadre unity, but denying an ally space may strain coalition equations. Handing over the seat could help consolidate minority votes but risks internal dissent. With the political environment increasingly competitive, taking a gamble at this stage could be dangerous for the ruling front.
The 2025 local body elections have significantly altered the political mood. A strong UDF wave enabled the alliance to regain control of the Perambra panchayat after nearly two decades. The shift was symbolically important because the panchayat lies within the assembly constituency represented by Ramakrishnan, who also serves as the LDF convener. In the previous panchayat, the LDF held 14 of the 19 seats.
The reversal the front suffered last year has emboldened the opposition.
The baton-charge incident involving Vadakara MP Shafi Parambil during a protest in Perambra town became a major campaign issue and helped consolidate anti-government sentiment at the grassroots. The UDF now views Perambra as a serious target rather than a long shot.
Internal dynamics within the UDF add another layer of complexity. The Congress leadership in Perambra has formally demanded that the assembly seat be reclaimed from the Muslim League, arguing that repeated defeats stem from allies contesting instead of the Congress. Youth Congress leaders claim the party has a stronger organisational presence locally and insist that fielding a Congress candidate is the only way to convert the current momentum into victory.
Amid speculation over candidature and alliance adjustments, Ramakrishnan indicated that no final decision has been taken.
“Final decisions are yet to come. We are awaiting party confirmation. The party will take the appropriate call,” he said when asked about his possible candidature.
Ikbal too maintained that discussions remain inconclusive.
“Nothing has been finalised. Whatever decision the leadership takes, we will move forward accordingly,” he said.