THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: After a notably deficient southwest monsoon, Keralam could see a sharper regional divide in rainfall during the northeast monsoon, with southern districts likely to receive better rains while northern Kerala may face below-normal rainfall.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD), in its post-monsoon seasonal outlook issued on Wednesday, forecast normal rainfall for South Peninsular India during October-December. However, meteorologists cautioned that the broad regional forecast should not be interpreted as uniform rainfall across Kerala.
Meteorologist Rajeevan Erikkulam said that southern Keralam can expect normal to above-normal rainfall during the period while northern parts of the state are likely to receive below-normal rainfall during the period.
“We cannot simply classify the overall rainfall for Kerala as normal. The IMD’s forecast of normal rainfall applies broadly across a five-state region, but regional variations within Kerala must be considered.” he said.
Rajeevan said that the northeast monsoon is inherently more erratic and spatially uneven than the southwest monsoon.
“Kerala’s rainfall during the season is strongly influenced by the formation and movement of low-pressure areas and cyclonic systems over the Bay of Bengal.
Unlike the southwest monsoon, which brings relatively uniform rainfall, the northeast monsoon is far less evenly distributed. Our rainfall heavily depends on localised system formations, such as low-pressure areas and cyclones in the Bay of Bengal. Just one or two favourable cyclonic systems can completely alter the seasonal totals,” he said.
The outlook has come as a huge relief for the state because of a significantly deficient southwest monsoon.
The state received 1,446.5 mm of rainfall between June 1 and September 30, making the 2026 southwest monsoon the seventh lowest since 1901 and fourth lowest since 2001, according to IMD.
“Daytime temperatures are projected to stay above normal. Rainfall and thunderstorms typically occur during the late afternoon or night during the northeast monsoon,” he said.
Rainfall warning
Thursday - Pathanamthitta, Kottayam, Ernakulam, Idukki, Palakkad and Malappuram
Friday - Idukki
Sunday - Pathanamthitta and Idukki