BHOPAL: Even as the Congress has turned "Seat Chori" (seat theft) into a major national political issue following the June 9 rejection of its candidate Meenakshi Natarajan's nomination papers for the June 18 Rajya Sabha elections in Madhya Pradesh, a key question is doing the rounds within the party in the BJP-ruled state.
While the Congress lost the third Rajya Sabha seat from Madhya Pradesh to the BJP, many party leaders are asking whether the setback may actually have helped the party avoid a much bigger crisis.
Congress leaders across ranks in Bhopal and elsewhere in the state believe there was a strong possibility that a group of Congress MLAs from different regions, united by common political interests, had been in touch with BJP leaders for the past three to four months.
They may not only have cross voted for BJP candidate Mahesh Kewat on June 18, but could also have switched allegiance to the ruling party afterwards.
Congress leaders, speaking to TNIE on condition of anonymity, claimed that the number of such MLAs allegedly in touch with BJP leaders ranged between 12 and 20 out of the opposition party's strength of more than 60 MLAs in the 230 member Assembly.
"We needed eight to 10 Congress MLAs to cross vote for our candidate, but the number of those in touch with our leaders, including cabinet ministers in MP, actually ranged between 15 and 20. Those Congress MLAs were from multiple regions of MP, particularly from Gwalior Chambal, Mahakoshal and central MP, besides some from Malwa Nimar and Vindhya regions. They have been in touch with us since February March, particularly after the outgoing Rajya Sabha member and former CM Digvijaya Singh publicly stated that he was not in the race for the next Rajya Sabha contest," a senior BJP leader and former MLA told TNIE.
The former BJP legislator also claimed that one of the Congress MLAs allegedly in touch with the BJP leadership had defeated him in the 2023 Assembly elections.
A corporate professional turned Congress leader from central MP, considered close to a former chief minister, echoed similar sentiments.
"Yes, the number of such MLAs will certainly not be less than 15, including those who in the last few days have been publicly saying that traitors will never be forgotten. Two former Congress legislators from the Malwa Nimar region who are now in the BJP and at least one former MLA from the Mahakoshal region may well have been the conduit connecting these MLAs with the ruling party's state leadership, with the promise of rich dividends in the future. The possible threat of these MLAs joining the BJP may have been averted for the time being, but it could return to haunt our party in the coming months and years, particularly as the 2028 Assembly elections approach."
Sources in both the Congress and BJP claimed that the group allegedly included legislators who won narrowly in 2023 and feared being denied tickets in 2028, those with links to RSS BJP backgrounds, and those uncomfortable with certain senior leaders currently influencing the MP Congress.
A senior Congress leader from the Mahakoshal region described the situation using two popular English maxims, "Every cloud has a silver lining" and "Blessing in disguise".
"We've certainly lost a Rajya Sabha seat from MP on the flimsiest of grounds. While we've lost, we've also gained immense public sympathy, including from old BJP families who see the recent development as an extreme and ugly form of seat theft. We may also have averted another possible rebellion in our ranks after the 2020 revolt by Jyotiraditya Scindia loyalist MLAs. It took us years to recover from the March 2020 fiasco, which still haunts us, particularly in parts of the Gwalior Chambal region. We couldn't afford a similar development again with two and a half years left before the next Assembly elections."
The 2020 rebellion, which led to the fall of the 15 month old Kamal Nath government, was led by then Congress leader and current Union minister Jyotiraditya Scindia. However, it remains unclear who would have led any fresh rebellion had it materialised around the Rajya Sabha polls.
Political sources claimed that while the legislators allegedly involved belonged to different regions, their common objective was securing their political future with the ruling party.
"If at all they had a leader, it may well have been a young legislator from the Gwalior Chambal region, the same region which was key to the successful rebellion of 2020," a source claimed.
Leader of Opposition Umang Singhar, however, disagreed.
A day after the rejection of Natarajan's nomination papers, the former MP minister said, "The BJP won the third seat unconstitutionally through the support of the Returning Officer because the ruling party, despite all its efforts and money power, failed to win over the required number of Congress MLAs for cross voting on polling day."
Meanwhile, claims by Congress leaders that the BJP may have suffered a loss of public goodwill over the manner of its victory appear to find support even among long time RSS and BJP supporters.
"The manner in which the BJP has won the third seat is unpalatable. We are unable to justify it to people, including BJP minded individuals, who are questioning us about it," said Suresh Sen, a real estate broker from Bhopal's Awadhpuri area who has been associated with the RSS for decades.
Ram Kumar Sharma, a medical shop owner in Bhopal's Piplani area who claims to have voted for the BJP in every election over the past 20 years, said, "Was this win on the third Rajya Sabha seat through unfair means needed at all?"
Another issue keeping Congress leaders occupied in Bhopal is the mystery surrounding how details of a 2025 private complaint filed by a former TDP corporator in an ACJM court in Hyderabad allegedly reached the BJP.
According to Bhopal based political commentator and journalist Gurendra Agnihotri, "There are multiple theories doing the rounds in political circles in Bhopal, including the possibility of the information having been leaked from within the Congress set up in Bhopal, a strong possibility of the BJP obtaining details from someone in the Telangana Congress unit, or the BJP receiving the information from its ally TDP, considering the complainant was a former TDP corporator."
A senior and influential Congress leader told TNIE that while Natarajan's nomination papers were being prepared at the MPCC headquarters in Bhopal, possibly on June 7, the private complaint may have been discussed in the presence of senior leaders and MLAs.
"While legal experts rightly stated that there was no need to mention it, as it was neither an FIR nor a case in which Natarajan had been charge sheeted, someone present at that time may have leaked the information to the BJP."
MP BJP leaders, including state president Hemant Khandelwal and cabinet minister Kailash Vijayvargiya, have repeatedly claimed that the information regarding the private complaint came from Congress insiders.
According to BJP sources, the documents related to the complaint were received from the Telangana BJP unit, though the original source of the information was allegedly within the Congress, either in Madhya Pradesh or Telangana.
Senior advocate and Congress leader JP Dhanopia, however, clarified that the issue of the 2025 complaint never arose during the preparation or filing of Natarajan's nomination papers.
"The matter came to our notice only after BJP candidate Mahesh Kewat submitted a copy of the complaint along with a written objection during the scrutiny of nomination papers on June 9."
According to a senior Congress legislator, the episode offers several lessons.
"When your opponent has every institution in their pocket, you cannot leave any stone unturned. Though we will file an election petition in the Madhya Pradesh High Court in the coming days and are confident of getting our stand vindicated, we must now be prepared to deal with an opponent who can go to any extent to win elections. It is not a question of under disclosure or over disclosure. We will have to disclose each and every detail in nomination papers in future."
Another lesson, according to party leaders, is that the Congress may need to abandon old traditions if it wants to effectively challenge the BJP.
"There has never been a tradition in our party of filing dummy nomination papers. Had we done so through another leader, we might still have remained in the contest and ultimately won the third seat."
The same issue was recently highlighted on social media by Vyapam scam whistleblower turned Congress leader Dr Anand Rai, who questioned why the Congress had failed to field a dummy candidate despite learning lessons from the defeats on the Khajuraho and Indore Lok Sabha seats in the 2024 general election.
The senior legislator also argued that the recent developments should send a clear message to the Congress high command.
"This is not Telangana or Karnataka where the Congress is in power with a clear and comfortable majority. This is Madhya Pradesh, where the party's numbers are not only low but also unstable. Fielding someone who is just a phone call away from the party's top leadership does not help in winning elections against a powerful and ruthless opponent. We need candidates who understand the complete political dynamics of Madhya Pradesh and are capable of creating divisions within the ranks of the ruling party."
Other names reportedly considered by the Congress for the June 18 biennial Rajya Sabha elections included former Union minister and former chief minister Kamal Nath, former Union minister and former state Congress chief Arun Yadav, and current state Congress president Jitendra Patwari.
This version follows news copy structure, uses British English, removes repetitive constructions, adds "allegedly" where appropriate, retains all quotes, and leads with the most distinctive angle of the story—that the Congress may have avoided a larger rebellion despite losing the Rajya Sabha seat.