CHENNAI: In electoral alliances, simple arithmetic calculations on conversion of vote-share between parties is not always a fruitful exercise as poll outcomes often defy such simplistic logic.
Yet, it is noteworthy that the winning prospects of the DMK-led alliance might have been jeopardised in at least 13 constituencies if the AIADMK and BJP did not break-up.
In these 13 constituencies, the combined vote share of the AIADMK alliance and the BJP-led NDA surpassed the vote-share secured by the DMK or its alliance partners.
The 13 constituencies are Krishnagiri, Dharmapuri, Salem, Namakkal, Tiruppur, Coimbatore, Arani, Villupuram, Kallakurichi, Chidambaram, Cuddalore, Virudhunagar, and Tenkasi. Majority of them, expectedly, were from the western region where both the AIADMK and BJP maintain a relatively better hold compared to other regions, aided by the PMK, which sided with the BJP this time.
In these 13 constituencies, DMK had directly contested in seven.
The difference between the DMK-led alliance and the combined vote share of AIADMK and NDA was the widest in Dharmapuri and Virudhunagar.
While the combined vote share of the BJP and AIADMK did not surpass that of the DMK alliance in Madurai and Sivaganga, the difference was very close in these two. Both Karti Chidambaram of Congress and Su Venkatesan of CPI (M) managed to win Sivaganga and Madurai respectively with a comfortable margin of over 2 lakh votes.
However, an AIADMK-BJP combine may have impacted their prospects. For instance, Venkatesan secured 43.6% vote share. BJP candidate Raama Sreenivasan, the runner-up, and AIADMK’s P Saravanan together polled 43.13%.
Similarly in Sivaganga, while Karti polled 40.6%, the BJP and AIADMK candidates jointly garnered 39.7% votes.