Exit polls released on Wednesday indicate a likely return to power for the DMK-led alliance in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Assembly elections, though several projections point to a potentially significant debut for actor-turned-politician Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam.
While the contest was primarily seen as a battle between the DMK alliance and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam-led NDA, much attention centred on TVK’s first electoral outing. Pollsters remain divided on its performance. Axis My India projected a dramatic 98–120 seats for TVK, placing it level with DMK+ at a 35% vote share. Kamakhya Analytics estimated 67–81 seats, suggesting a possible kingmaker role for Vijay.
Other agencies offered more conservative forecasts. P-Marq predicted 16–26 seats, Matrize 10–12, JVC 8–15, and Praja Poll 1–9 seats. People's Insight, however, placed TVK higher at 30–40 seats.
Despite varying projections for TVK, most exit polls gave the edge to the DMK-led alliance.
Axis My India forecast 92–110 seats for DMK+, while Matrize projected a stronger 122–132 seats. P-Marq and People's Pulse both estimated 125–145 seats for the ruling alliance.
For the AIADMK-led NDA, projections ranged widely—from 22–32 seats (Axis My India) to 87–100 (Matrize) and 65–85 (P-Marq). In contrast, JVC predicted a surprise surge for the NDA with 128–147 seats, while Kamakhya Analytics suggested a tighter contest.
The DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance includes the Indian National Congress, Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam, and Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi. The NDA in Tamil Nadu is led by the AIADMK along with the Bharatiya Janata Party and Pattali Makkal Katchi.
Tamil Nadu recorded a voter turnout of 82.24% by 5 pm on April 23, with polling across all 234 constituencies concluding the same evening, according to the Election Commission of India.