CHENNAI: Five months is a long time in politics. Since the April Assembly election, six MLAs, who contested and won on AIADMK ticket, have crossed over to the TVK. Two of the seats that fell vacant – Madurantakam (SC) and Dharapuram (SC) – will go to the polls again on October 6, the verdict of which will have wider political implications for both the parties.
For the TVK, the bypolls offer an early test of whether the party can consolidate its position after coming to power, with the results likely to serve as a forerunner to the bye-election to the other vacant seats. A TVK victory in both constituencies could trigger a further exodus of AIADMK functionaries and leaders to the ruling party, and weaken Edappadi K Palaniswami’s hold over the AIADMK.
For the AIADMK, retaining the seats would demonstrate the party’s resilience and help improve the image of general secretary Palaniswami, who has been criticised for steering the party into successive electoral defeats. It would also provide him with greater political space to face the party’s executive committee and general council meetings. A defeat could make the meetings considerably more contentious, with a section of the leadership likely to question his handling of the party.
In the April election, the TVK polled 62,090 votes (31.32%) in Madurantakam, just 7,194 behind the winning AIADMK. In Dharapuram, the TVK polled 46,438 votes (23.23%), while the AIADMK won with 81,100 votes (40.56%). The DMK’s vote base in these constituencies - around 30% in Madurantakam and more than 32% in Dharapuram in the April election - could also be decisive in determining how the contest unfolds.
The PMK’s neutral stand could work against the AIADMK, particularly in Madurantakam because of the constituency’s Vanniyar population. At the same time, the presence of Left parties in the contest is likely to split at least a few thousand votes.
The TVK government faces criticism over issues such as power outages, law and order, including crimes against women, and on crop loan waiver. At the same time, its stand against corruption, popular schemes, including Thaimaaman Thanga Mothiram, Vettri Payanam, and extension of the breakfast scheme up could work in its favour.
“We are not forcing them, but a lot of senior leaders (in the AIADMK) have expressed their willingness to resign and join our party. Considering the caste dynamics in certain constituencies, we have asked them to wait. If the TVK wins the bye-election, it will give confidence to the AIADMK loyalists, senior leaders and MLAs to move towards the TVK,” a TVK minister told TNIE.
“There is a counter-polarisation on the ground against the TVK candidate who shifted from AIADMK after being elected as MLA. We are finding it difficult to crack. On the ground, it is perceived as a Dalit candidate ditching an AIADMK leader from the numerically dominant caste group. Hence, our leader (Vijay) had to appeal to the Dharapuram people to vote beyond caste and religion,” a TVK source added.
The AIADMK has been vociferously putting forth the argument before voters: “Punish those who betrayed your mandate just five months ago.” This argument appears to be gaining greater traction in Dharapuram than in Madurantakam. AIADMK MP I S Inbadurai told TNIE that public anger was reflected in ruling party candidates having to campaign with police security for the first time. He said that the party is telling voters that the ruling TVK has thrust the bypolls on them by luring elected AIADMK MLAs.
On the absence of senior leaders such as C Ve Shanmugam and S P Velumani from the campaign scene, Inbadurai said it would not affect the AIADMK’s prospects.