HYDERABAD: Telangana has entered July with a mixed monsoon outlook as a strengthening El Nino raises concerns over disrupted rainfall across India. Although weathermen are hoping for a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) to offset some of El Nino’s drying impact, the chances of a strong IOD developing remain slim, keeping rainfall prospects uncertain.
Forecasts indicate a clear spatial divide within the state, with northern and eastern districts likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall, while western and southern regions may continue to see below-normal precipitation — raising concerns for agriculture, water security, and rural livelihoods. Temperatures are also expected to remain above normal across the state through the month, adding further stress to already moisture-deficient conditions.
Telangana ended June with a rainfall deficit of about 15%, receiving 111.6 mm against a normal of 131.4 mm. Although the southwest monsoon arrived around June 8, its progress has remained uneven, producing a patchwork of surplus and deficit conditions across districts.
Among the worst-affected areas during June 1-30, Hanamkonda recorded the highest deficit at 70% below normal, followed by Warangal at 63%. Siddipet saw a 53% shortfall, while Nirmal and Yadadri Bhuvanagiri each reported a 52% deficit. In contrast, some districts recorded excess rainfall. Suryapet led the state with a 39% surplus, followed by Mulugu (30%), Nalgonda (12%), Nagarkurnool (10%), and Narayanpet (7%). Hyderabad recorded a 17% rainfall deficit, receiving 93.3 mm against a normal of 112.0 mm.
Meteorologists caution that a strengthening El Nino could lengthen dry spells between rain events, elevate day and night temperatures, and reduce soil moisture availability-conditions that can significantly affect crop growth during critical stages of the kharif season.
While some projections indicate that parts of central Telangana, including Hyderabad, may still receive near-normal or isolated above-normal rainfall, northern and southern districts are likely to remain vulnerable to deficits of 25-30%. This uneven spatial distribution complicates agricultural planning and water management.
Reservoir inflows in the Krishna river basin and Godavari river basin are also a concern, as these systems are critical for irrigation, drinking water supply, and hydropower generation.
Below-normal rainfall in catchment areas could reduce storage levels during the ongoing season.
State contingency planning now accounts for multiple rainfall scenarios, including delayed monsoon phases extending into mid-July, late July, or even mid-August. These plans include district-specific guidance on crop selection, sowing windows, and water management strategies to support farmer decision-making under variable conditions.
Despite the challenges, experts note that Telangana is better equipped today to manage climate variability than in previous decades, supported by improved forecasting, resilient crop varieties, expanded irrigation infrastructure, and greater emphasis on crop diversification. Government agencies, including the Indian Council of Agricultural Research and state agriculture departments, along with district task forces, have stepped up coordination to strengthen preparedness and ensure timely advisories for farmers.
Beyond the current season, the evolving monsoon pattern underscores the urgency of long-term climate adaptation, with experts emphasising the need for investments in water conservation, micro-irrigation, watershed development, crop diversification and climate-smart agriculture to reduce vulnerability to rainfall extremes.
RAIN ALERT FOR PARTS OF TG FOR NEXT THREE DAYS
HYDERABAD: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast heavy rainfall in isolated districts of Telangana on July 2, along with light to moderate rain in several parts of the state over the next three days. On July 3, the IMD has forecast thunderstorms with lightning and gusty winds of 30–40 kmph at isolated places, along with light to moderate rain or thundershowers in parts of the state.
Meanwhile, the southwest monsoon has advanced further into additional parts of the north Arabian Sea, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Ladakh, Jammu & Kashmir, Haryana, and Punjab. The IMD said that conditions remain favourable for the monsoon to advance into more parts of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Punjab, and Rajasthan over the next two days.
The weather office also noted that the trough extending from south Madhya Pradesh to the east-central Arabian Sea through Marathwada, Madhya Maharashtra, and Konkan-Goa, which persisted till Tuesday at an altitude of 4.5 to 5.8 km above mean sea level, has weakened and become less marked.