HYDERABAD: Telangana ended the 2026 Southwest Monsoon with a 17% rainfall below normal, with the shortfall widening towards the latter part of the season, particularly in August. While the deficit was lower than those recorded in several earlier El Nino years, the season was marked by uneven rainfall across the state.
Telangana received 615.5 mm of rainfall between June and September against the seasonal normal of 740.6 mm, leaving a shortfall of 125.1 mm. The monsoon began with a modest deficit, and July was almost normal, but a sharp decline in August and below-normal rainfall in September widened the seasonal gap.
“The important point about 2026 is that the season did not remain uniformly deficient. There was a period of recovery in July, but the sharp rainfall deficiency in August changed the overall picture. This is why looking only at the seasonal figure does not tell the complete story,” said IMD Hyderabad meteorologist GNRS Srinivas Rao.
In earlier El Nino years, Telangana recorded deficits of 33% in 1997, 32% in 2002, 36% in 2004 and 31% in 2009. The 2026 deficit was lower than all four, but slightly higher than the 14% recorded in 2015.
The contrast with 2023 was sharper. Telangana received 861.1 mm against a normal of 738.6 mm that year, ending with a 17% surplus. In 2026, all four months recorded below-normal rainfall, although July was only marginally deficient.
“El Nino is an important large-scale climate factor, but it should not be treated as a direct predictor of rainfall in every part of the country. Telangana’s rainfall can be strongly influenced by individual weather systems and their timing. The difference between 2023 and 2026 illustrates this variability,” Srinivas Rao added.
Highest deficit in Jogulamba Gadwal
Fifteen districts ended the season with normal rainfall, while 18 were deficient. Jogulamba Gadwal recorded the highest deficit at 41%, followed by Narayanpet and Hanamkonda at 35% each. Nalgonda recorded a 34% deficit. Siddipet recorded a 10% surplus, while Medak, Rajanna Sircilla and Kamareddy also ended with above-normal rainfall.
Hyderabad received 458.2 mm against a normal of 627.2 mm, a 27% deficit. Medchal-Malkajgiri recorded a 33% deficit and Rangareddy 14%. Across the GHMC, CMC and MMC areas, rainfall was 26% below normal. This was a reversal from 2023, when Hyderabad recorded a 25% surplus. The contrast was evident not only in the seasonal totals but also in the distribution of rainfall.
What distinguished 2026 was therefore less the size of the final deficit than how it developed. After a relatively stable July, rainfall weakened sharply in August and remained below normal in September, leaving the state 125.1 mm short of its seasonal normal.