NEW DELHI: The global trade map is redrawing itself as Washington’s tariff wall rises. Data for 2025 reveals a world redesigning its trade options to circumnavigate the tariff regime imposed by the Trump administration.
Global trade realignments show many deviations from the past, but also continue past patterns. India’s surplus in the bilateral trade with the US, for example, climbed to $50 billion by October 2025, up from $45.8 billion in 2024.
The Trump administration imposed a 26% reciprocal tariff on India in April 2025, followed by an additional 25% punitive tax in August over India’s purchase of Russian oil. This pushed the average US tariff on Indian goods to one of the highest in the world. Despite this burden, Indian exports remained surprisingly robust, growing nearly 10% year-on-year through December 2025. It remains to be seen, however, whether this resilience is the result of the stickiness of global supply chains—where contracts and logistics cannot be moved overnight—or a sign of India’s successful re-routing of its exports.
While some analysts point to exemptions for key sectors, such as iPhones and pharmaceuticals as the primary stabiliser, the long-term sustainability of this volume is under scrutiny.
Globally, Vietnam has emerged as the most agile connector. Its bilateral trade surplus with the US reached $129.5 billion by October 2025, already exceeding the full-year figure for 2024. This occurred despite a 46% headline reciprocal tariff. Vietnam is a textbook case of trade diversion. While it sold more to the US, its imports from China hit $186 billion in 2025. Experts point to a China-Vietnam-US triangle, where Chinese goods often receive a “Made in Vietnam” label.
China, too, has shown resilience. Its trade surplus with the US slumped to $175.4 billion by October 2025, a sharp drop from nearly $295 billion in 2024. Average US tariffs on Chinese exports reached 47.5%.
Despite this, Beijing delivered a record-shattering rebuff. By October 2025, it posted a total trade surplus of $1.189 trillion, the largest ever recorded by any nation. While its exports to the US fell by 20%, it diversified elsewhere. Shipments to Africa jumped 25.8%, and those to the ASEAN bloc rose 13.4%, proving that while tariffs can shift trade away from US shores, they have not dented China’s role as the world’s factory.
However, not everyone is coping well. Canada is feeling the most pain due to its direct proximity with the US. Its bilateral trade fell to $40 billion by October last year. In early 2025, Washington imposed a 25% universal tariff on Canadian imports, excluding energy products, which faced a 10% rate.
These “border tariffs” increased to 35% for many goods on August 1, 2025. The measures disrupted highly integrated supply chains, prompting Canada to retaliate with its own 25% surtax on American goods. Although many of these were lifted for “USMCA-compliant” products later in 2025, the damage was already done. Canada’s total trade deficit widened to an estimated $13.8 billion, and the average cost for US consumers of Canadian-made goods remains elevated.