Generative AI will enrich tech companies but substantially jeopardise the income of human creators in the next five years, reveals the first ever global study measuring the economic impact of AI in the music and audiovisual sectors.
The study was commissioned by CISAC (International Confederation of Societies of Authors and Composers, representing over 5 million creators), and conducted by PMP Strategy.
“In an unchanged regulatory framework, creators will actually suffer losses on two fronts: the loss of revenues due to the unauthorised use of their works by Gen AI models without remuneration; and replacement of their traditional revenue streams due to the substitution effect of AI-generated outputs, competing against human-made works," the study concludes.
While the revenues of Gen AI providers will see dramatic growth over the next five years, creators risk losing a large share of their current income due to AI’s substitutional impact on human-made works. Despite providing the creative fuel of the “Gen AI” content market, music and audiovisual creators will see respectively 24% and 21% of their revenues at risk of loss by 2028. This amounts to a cumulative loss of €22 billion over the 5-year period (€10 billion in music; €12 billion in audiovisual).
The study also finds that the market for music and AV content generated by AI will increase exponentially in the next five years, growing from around €3 billion now to €64 billion in 2028.
The economic study assesses that, as a result of this exponential growth in the market for music and audiovisual content, the future revenues of Gen AI providers will rise to annual revenues of €4 billion in music (up from €0.1 billion in 2023) and €5 billion in audiovisual (up from €0.2 billion) by 2028. These are revenues derived directly from the unlicensed reproduction of creators’ works, representing a transfer of economic value from creators to AI companies.
In the music sector, the streaming and music library markets will be strongly impacted by AI. By 2028, Gen AI music is projected to account for approximately 20% of traditional music streaming platforms’ revenues, and around 60% of music libraries’ revenues.
The projected revenue loss will also be substantial for audiovisual creators. Translators and adaptors for dubbing and subtitling will experience the strongest impact, with 56% of their revenue at risk, while screenwriters and directors could see their revenues cannibalised by 15 to 20%.
Abba co-founder Björn Ulvaeus, who is the president of CISAC, warned that generative artificial intelligence “has the power to cause great damage” to musicians. His warning comes after the findings of the study were released in Paris on Wednesday.
It was “very unfair” that tech companies should be able to use artists’ work “without asking or remunerating” them, Ulvaeus has been quoted as saying by the Financial Times.
According to The Guardian, the Australian and New Zealand governments were singled out by Björn Ulvaeus, who said the two countries were leading the world in shaping policies that will safeguard creators in the face of generative AI.