The rise in both day and night temperatures, particularly during winter, along with more frequent terminal heat stress during reproductive stages, are disrupting the wheat growth cycle across five major wheat-producing states, contributing around 85% of India’s total public wheat procurement, reveals a new study.
This disruption is resulting in reduced wheat growth, grain quality and yield stability in country’s wheat heartland. The impacts are further intensified by erratic rainfall, humidity and post-harvest losses, especially during harvest and storage periods. Projections consistently indicate major yield declines across the Indo-Gangetic Plain if current trends continue.
The study, titled ‘Wheat under stress: Climate change, rising heat, and adaptation pathways in India’s major wheat-growing states,’ finds that country’s wheat heartland - Punjab and Haryana - is heating much faster than other regions, with night-time temperatures rising more rapidly than daytime temperatures. This trend is negatively impacting wheat productivity in the country. Wheat requires a maximum temperature of up to 29° C and a minimum temperature of 8° C in different stages from the vegetative stage to the maturity stage in different states.
India has been visibly experiencing wheat production stress since 2022. In February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, both major exporters of wheat, triggering a global food crisis. In the middle of it, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced plans to feed the world as India’s wheat outlook was quite positive and it was the world’s second-largest producer after China. But soon, the dream of becoming a global exporter was shattered by the early onset of heat waves (Feb-March), which severely impacted India’s wheat production.
As a result, India restricted wheat exports in May 2022. In 2023, the development of El Niño further stressed wheat production and India continued its export restrictions. Over the next two years, India will struggle to cope with the loss due to rising temperatures and their negative impact on wheat production. Finally, riding on above-normal monsoonal rainfall in 2025 which helped retain ample moisture in the soil, the government claimed bumper wheat production. India removed its wheat export restrictions and for the first time in the past four years, crossed its procurement target.
In May 2026, India procured 350 lakh metric tonnes (LMT) of wheat against a target of 345 LMT for its public distribution system. However, the threat remained looming. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) and global meteorological agencies predicted the strongest El Niño in the past 150 years. Moreover, the IMD has already predicted the possibility of deficient rainfall. Next year, the country may again witness suppressed wheat production due to lower soil moisture and unusually high temperatures.
Rising temperature factor
Conducted by Climate Trends, a Delhi-based climate advocacy organisation, the study analysed temperature rises over two distinct decades for comparison.
The research examines the decadal growth rates of wheat in major producing states including Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana and Gujarat and reveals that over the last three decades (1995-2025), wheat growth rates have declined, particularly in the north-western regions of Punjab and Haryana.
For instance, the decadal growth rate of wheat production was 30% from 1986 to 1995, but it dropped to -2.6% from 2015 to 2025 in Haryana’s wheat belt. Punjab exhibits a similar trend. (see the table)
The study highlights that winter is shrinking and heat is increasing to terminal levels during the wheat flowering period, leading to shrivelled grains. February has recorded the fastest warming, with temperatures rising by 0.69° C per decade. March and April also show significant increases at 0.58° C and 0.66 °C, respectively. Late winter and early spring months have warmed the most rapidly between 2010 and 2025. Heat stress during spring shortens the crop duration, resulting in shrivelled grains and lower productivity.
The study states that this leads to consistent impacts across diverse geographies, including poor germination, reduced tillering, early maturity, and increased pest pressure.
These adverse conditions are further worsened by unseasonal rainfall, which destroys standing or ready-to-harvest crops. The study points out that Western Disturbances have been arriving late, bringing heavier rainfall in March and April instead of the traditional winter months.
Non-climatic factors
The study also finds that temperature is not the only factor affecting wheat production. Farming practices, irrigation, soil quality, technology, and government policies often have a bigger impact on yields than climate alone.
For instance, the study shows that slightly warmer daytime temperatures in Punjab, Haryana and Madhya Pradesh appear to help in wheat growth, but warmer nights tend to reduce yields.
Nevertheless, in Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh, higher temperatures generally reduce wheat yields. Warmer nights seem particularly harmful because they can interfere with grain development.