There was a time when a week was considered to be a long time in politics. Even seven hours is a long time in the age of BJP 2.0.
The triumvirate of Shiv Sena, NCP and Congress got a stunning lesson in power politics on Saturday morning. The timeline is a reflection of ruthless efficiency.
To paraphrase lines from history, the tryst with power began around midnight, when India was asleep and the BJP cracked a deal with Ajit Pawar.
In the next seven hours the governor was convinced, President’s rule was lifted at 5.47 am, and by 7.45 am Fadnavis and Pawar were sworn in as chief minister and deputy chief minister.
The fact that NCP chief Sharad Pawar, dubbed Maharashtra’s Machiavelli, claimed that he came to know only when bewildered MLAs from his party called to inform him is proof of the preparation that went into the overnight coup.
The chefs from Delhi and from Mumbai, from the Congress and the Shiv Sena, involved in cooking the dum-pukht version of a political alliance were literally caught napping.
Of course this is not the first overnight coup planned and executed by BJP. Stealth and speed was the calling card in Operation Bihar too. On July 26, 2017, Nitish Kumar resigned and called off the JDU alliance with RJD-Congress at around 6.30 pm — the reason was the refusal of Tejaswi Yadav to quit despite corruption charges.
By 7.10 pm, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had congratulated Nitish Kumar for his stand against corruption.
At 9.30 pm, the BJP hinted at backing JDU, by 10.30 pm, Sushil Modi of BJP presented a letter of support to JD(U), at 1 am Nitish Kumar was invited to form the government, and he was sworn in as CM by 10 am.
BJP 2.0, under Narendra Modi and Amit Shah, functions on the fulcrum of two critical principles — yield no space and take no prisoners. Consider the Maharashtra mess. In an earlier age the BJP would have sent a delegation to mollycoddle the ally.
In 2019, there was no approach for a rapprochement — and it didn’t matter that this was a party the BJP was in alliance with for three decades. The lexicon defines an alliance as an association formed for mutual benefit.
An ally is defined as “one that is associated with another as a helper”. Messaging is a core component of political strategy in BJP 2.0. It was essential to underline the new stature and status of the BJP and put the ally in its place — and to signal the others of their locus.
The party in name is still the Bharatiya Janata Party as it was during the Vajpayee-Advani era, but the design and architecture of its politics has been reconfigured and is drawn from the duo’s experiential years in Gujarat. Strategy is executed with three Cs — centralisation of decision-making, crafting of communication channels and converting challenges into opportunities.
The quest is to acquire market share and the acquisition strategy is crafted for a monopolistic hold over the electorate — as it has in Gujarat, as it devised in Uttar Pradesh and as it is envisaging in West Bengal. Towards this the core group has data and analytics of the strengths and weaknesses of every entity.
Unlike its previous avatar, BJP 2.0 is no shrinking violet. It has internalised the maxim that politics is the art of the possible and conviction is a matter of electoral convenience.
The party has an agile import policy designed to bridge gaps — both in pre-election imports and post results deals. It might rail about dynastic politics, but that doesn’t preclude alliances with the Akali Dal, the LJP, the PDP or Shiv Sena. Neither does that prevent nomination of dynasts on party tickets.
The induction of individuals — a Sukh Ram, a Rane — and crafting of alliances, a la the one with Chautala, is determined by macro objectives. Take Maharashtra.
It is critical for the BJP as it is home to 48 Lok Sabha seats, home to money power and has signalled turning points in India’s political history — remember, the rise of the BJP coincided with its rise in Maharashtra in 1995. Ergo the fact that Ajit Pawar was the target of the 2014 campaign, and faces corruption charges, didn’t befuddle the party from crafting a deal with him.
Whether it is in Goa, Arunachal Pradesh or Karnataka, the BJP scarcely shied from opportunism.
Again, when the BJP stepped in to back JDU, it didn’t matter that the split with Nitish Kumar was full of rancour and bitterness — the focus was to block the return of Lalu Yadav.
The eventual outcome in Maharashtra is filled with suspense, intrigue and much drama. While the BJP has managed to upset the momentum of the triumvirate, the Shiv Sena, Congress and NCP, how the BJP’s bet will play out is a known unknown — and Saturday’s events show even seven hours can upend the best laid plans.
The mess in Maharashtra has lessons for political parties across the country – particularly regional satraps digging in to retain their hold on their market share.
This BJP will leverage every weakness it spots. Anything that they say, don’t say, do or don’t do can be and will be used against them in the new no-holds-barred landscape.Parties need to define what they stand for and what they stand against. Politics can no longer be a part-time passion or merely a debate chamber.
shankkar.aiyar@gmail.com