NEW DELHI: India's merchandise exports rose by 32.5 per cent to USD 20.6 billion in January on an annual basis, driven by pick up in demand from markets such as the US and Latin America, raising expectations that shipments would touch USD 220 billion by this fiscal-end.
During April-January period of 2010-11, the outbound shipments grew by 29.4 per cent to USD 184.6 billion over the year-ago period.
"It is a huge jump. Export performance is pretty damn good. My guess is that by next month, we will cross USD 200 billion and we should end up at USD 220-225 billion," Commerce Secretary Rahul Khullar told reporters here today.
As per the primary estimates, imports during the month grew by 13.1 per cent to USD 28.6 billion over the same period last year, resulting in the trade deficit by USD 8 billion.
Exporters body FIEO said that the country's exports are increasing in new markets of Latin America and Africa along with the US and specially within Asia.
"Exports are increasing because of market diversification. Asia itself has emerged as a big export destination," Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) President Ramu Deora said.
The shipments are increasing in new markets such as Latin America and Africa, trade expert with Indian Institute of Foreign Trade (IIFT), Rakesh Mohan Joshi said.
In its monetary policy review last month, the RBI had said that global growth prospects have improved in recent weeks.
The recovery in major advanced economies which had weakened during the second quarter of 2010, regained strength in the following quarter.
The sectors that performed well during the April-January period of the current financial year include gems and jewellery (9.3 per cent), engineering (70 per cent) and petroleum and oil lubricants (36 per cent), Khullar said.
Exporters are getting huge demands for engineering products from Latin American countries such as Columbia.
The trade deficit during the first 10 months of the fiscal stood at USD 89 billion.
"My guess is that trade gap should end up at USD 105-110 billion," the Secretary said.
The government had set up an export target of USD 200 billion for 2010-11.
In December 2010, the country's shipments grew by 36.4?per cent to USD 22.5 billion on an annual basis, the highest in 33 months.
During April-January 2010-11, imports grew by 17.6 per cent to USD 273.6 billion, he said, adding the import numbers are "guesstimates" and will be revised.
Officially, the trade numbers for January would be released by the government on March 1.
Khullar said if the country's exports continue to grow at this rate, the shipments would touch close to USD 500 billion in the next three years.
The Commerce Ministry is in a process to prepare a strategy paper aimed at doubling India's exports by the end of 2014.
"...if it (India's exports) is going to be USD 220 (by end of 2010-11), then setting a target of USD 400 billion is ridiculous....implicit rate of growth will be of the order of 27-28 per cent," he said, adding India is targeting USD 500 billion worth of exports by end of 2014.
He said barring rice, iron ore, fruits and vegetables exports, all other sectors registered healthy growth in January.
"The growth is negative because rice and iron ore exports are banned by the government," he said, adding in fruits and vegetables, onion exports contributes maximum and that is also not permitted to export.
Iron ore exports during the month declined by 28 per cent to USD 3.2 billion over the year-ago period.
Other sectors that registered healthy growth in the first 10 months of the current fiscal include man-made fibres and pharmaceutical (14 per cent), cotton made ups (52 per cent), electronics (38 per cent), chemicals (23 per cent), leather (10 per cent), mica and coal (100 per cent), plastics and carpets (40 per cent), marine products (19 per cent).
He said pharmaceutical exports, which grew by 14 per cent to USD 8.3 billion during the period April-January, 2010-11 would touch USD 10 billion by this fiscal-end.
During the 10-months period, sectors that recorded imports growth include petroleum and oil lubricants (14 per cent), pearls and stones (63 per cent), gold and silver (9 per cent), fertilisers (3 per cent), vegetable oil (17 per cent), machinery (31 per cent), electrical goods and iron ore (32 per cent), chemicals (25 per cent) and project goods (45 per cent).
Khullar said the export and import numbers reflects that industrial activity "are still carrying out quite normally".
However, industrial expansion plunged to a 20-month low of 1.6 per cent in December, 2010.
Industrial growth (IIP) during April-December this fiscal stood unchanged at 8.6 per cent as compared to the corresponding period last fiscal.