MUMBAI: Toll collections across national highways are expected to remain healthy, but marginally moderating to 6–8% in FY27 from 7-9% this fiscal supported by traffic growth despite lower inflation-linked toll rate hikes.
The ratings agency Icra expects toll collections to grow by 7–9% this fiscal supported by higher traffic growth of 4–5% compared to 2.5% in FY25. Amid soft wholesale inflation, the inflation-linked toll rate is likely to increase by around 3.3% for newer projects linked to December price index and 2.5–3% for older projects linked to March reading in FY27, the agency said in a report Wednesday.
Commenting on the outlook, Suprio Banerjee, Co-Group Head, Corporate Ratings at Icra said, toll collection is expected to be impacted by muted rate hike next fiscal though traffic growth is likely to benefit from buoyant economic growth, resulting in an overall toll collection growth of 6–8%. Our analysis indicates that annual toll passes launched in August 2025 had a limited impact on overall toll collections and most developers are getting payouts from the authority on a weekly basis.
According to him, the expected resilience in toll revenue comes even as road construction is moderating due to decline in new project awards by the road ministry in the past three years.
The agency expects road execution under the under ministry to decline to 9,500–10,000 km in FY26 from 10,660 km in FY25 and further to 9,000–9,500 km in FY27. Road awards are projected at 7,250–7,750 km in FY26, largely in line with 7,538 km awarded in FY25, while remaining lower than FY21 to FY23 levels.
“Owing to the shrinking order book of road developers amid continued slowdown in project awards and disruptions caused by the early onset and elongated monsoons this fiscal year, road construction is expected to decline to 9,500-10,000 km in F26 from 10,660 km in FY25. However, given the increasing focus on building expressways/high-speed corridors, the road construction growth in terms of lane-km expansion will be relatively better, he said.