NEW DELHI: India’s economic growth for the current financial year may turn out higher than the official estimate of 7.4% once the national accounts are rebased to 2022-23, according to a research note from the State Bank of India (SBI).
The National Statistics Office’s (NSO) First Advance Estimates, released on Wednesday, projected real GDP growth at 7.4% for FY26, up from 6.5% in the previous year. However, SBI’s Ecowrap report suggests that the figure could be closer to 7.5% with an upward bias after the upcoming revision in the GDP base year.
“The second advance estimates, incorporating additional data and revisions, are scheduled to be released on February 27, 2026. So, all these numbers are expected to change with the base revision to 2022-23,” the report stated.
The NSO has already indicated that it is in the process of shifting the base year from 2011–12 to 2022–23, a move that typically leads to methodological updates and incorporation of new data sources, often resulting in revised growth estimates.
SBI noted that historically, the difference between the Reserve Bank of India’s growth projections and NSO’s first estimates has remained within 20–30 basis points, making the 7.4% figure quite expected and reasonable for now.
The report highlighted that the services sector remains the key driver, estimated to grow at 9.1%, while manufacturing and construction are projected to expand by 7.0%. However, agriculture and mining showed moderated growth.
On the expenditure side, gross fixed capital formation—a gauge of investment demand—recovered to 7.8% in real terms, while private consumption grew at 7.0%. Government spending also provided support with a 5.2% rise.
SBI also expects the fiscal deficit to remain around 4.4% of GDP in FY26, aided by higher non-tax revenues and controlled expenditure.
With the base revision likely to capture structural changes in the economy since 2011, analysts anticipate upward adjustments in growth numbers in the coming months, reinforcing India’s position as one of the fastest-growing major economies.