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Rupee nears all-time low amid rising crude prices and foreign fund outflows

At the interbank foreign exchange market Friday, the rupee opened at 90.37 and touched an intraday low of 90.89, a tad above its lowest-ever closing level of 90.93 on December 16, 2025 when it had plunged to the lowest of 91.14 intra-day trade.

Benn Kochuveedan

MUMBAI: The rupee continued remain under intense pressure for the third straight day Friday, tumbling by 50 paise to settle near its lowest closing level of 90.84, amid rising crude oil prices and sustained outflow of foreign funds coupled with strengthening dollar.

At the interbank foreign exchange market Friday, the rupee opened at 90.37 and touched an intraday low of 90.89, a tad above its lowest-ever closing level of 90.93 on December 16, 2025 when it had plunged to the lowest of 91.14 intra-day trade. The unit ended the session at 90.84 (provisional) against the greenback, down 50 paise from Wednesday's close. Thursday the currency and equity markets were closed due to local body elections in the city.

The rupee had lost 11 paise to close at 90.34 Wednesday, after falling 6 paise Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the after the third largest fall last week when it had nearly declined by $10 billion, the foreign exchange reserves saw a marginal $392 million rise, reaching $687.19 billion for the week to January 9. In the previous week, the reserves had plunged by $9.8 billion.

The Reserve Bank said the marginal gain was in spite of a decline in the foreign currency assets, which make up the bulk of the reserves, to the tune of $1.124 billion during the reported week to stand at $550.87 billion.

In dollar terms, foreign currency assets reflect not only changes in asset values but also the impact of movements in major non-US currencies such as the euro, pound sterling, and yen that are held as part of the reserve basket.

Reflecting the rally in the gold prices, gold holdings went up by $1.568 billion to $112.83 billion over the week, leading to the marginal accretion in the overall reserves, the central bank said.

Volatile global sentiment and a firm American currency accelerated the withdrawal of foreign institutional investors, even as domestic investors resorted to value buying, traders said.

The rupee faced intense selling pressure after data released on Thursday showed the trade deficit widened to $25.04 billion in December, compared to $24.53 billion in November and $22 billion in December 2024.

Anuj Choudhary, research analyst at Mirae Asset ShareKhan, said the rupee fell for the third consecutive session amid persistent foreign fund outflows and a strong dollar overnight. The dollar strengthened after better-than-expected US unemployment claims and manufacturing data, he added.

The rupee to trade with a negative bias on uncertainty over trade deal talks and geopolitical tensions. A strong dollar, FII outflows from capital markets and elevated crude oil prices may continue to pressurise the rupee, Choudhary said and projecting the rupee-dollar spot price to in a range of 90.50-91.25.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.06% lower at 99.26, while Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading 1.14% higher at $64.49/barrel in futures trade.

On the domestic equity market front, the Sensex climbed 187.64 points to settle at 83,570.35, while the Nifty rose 28.75 points to 25,694.35.

Foreign institutional investors offloaded equities worth Rs 4,781.24 crore on Wednesday, according to exchange data. They had sold more than $18 billion in 2025 alone, making it the biggest rip-off.

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