Dubai’s real estate market may take a hit of 20% in calendar year 2026 due to geopolitical tensions in West Asia but will bounce back strongly on the back of robust fundamentals, said Anis Sajan, the Vice Chairman of Danube Group, one of the United Arab Emirates' (UAE) largest realty companies. Sajan set aside rumours that property prices have seen a steep decline following the turmoil in the region.
"Yes, sales have taken a hit since tensions broke out in the region. Last year, Dubai's real estate market grew about 20%. This year (2026), I expect a 20% degrowth," Sajan told TNIE in an interaction. He added, "Buyers have gone into wait-and-watch mode. The number of units we used to sell out in one month now takes us three months. Going forward, our focus will be on completing existing projects and selling them off, rather than launching one after another."
Dubai’s real estate market has shown significant growth over the last decade, recovering from a downturn in the mid-2010s and Covid pandemic to achieve record transaction volumes and values, driven by investor influx and policy support. Official data from the Dubai Land Department (DLD) and related reports highlight surges in prices, sales and investments.
Dubai’s real estate sector achieved its strongest performance to date in 2025, with over 270,000 transactions worth AED 917 billion ($250 billion), up 20% year on year.
Sajan stated that reputed builders have seen no major price corrections, though distress selling has emerged in the secondary market. He added that cash-strapped builders are offering discounts to generate funds for project completion and bank obligations. "The 7-8% annual price rises we used to see are not happening now. Prices remain stable for the moment. Top builders are offering incentives and launching new projects to drive sales and sustain momentum," said Sajan.
Danube Properties recently launched Greenz By Danube, its first large-scale integrated community featuring premium townhouses and villas, marking a major milestone in its expansion into master-planned developments, with prices starting at AED 3.5 million.
Sajan dismissed reports that Indian buyers are fleeing Dubai's property market as "completely misleading." "For many developers, including Danube, Indians remain one of our biggest buyer bases. They're not leaving Dubai-they see it as the safest place with all global amenities. High rental yields of 6-10% and property price appreciation continue to attract them," he said.
Sajan said a big concern for developers in recent months has been a 20% surge in building material prices which is expected to impact their bottom line by 1-1.5%. “However, for Danube’s material business, April was the best month as there have been so many launches and everyone needs material to building. We recorded our highest sales and highest profit for the building material business last month,” said Sajan.