NEW DELHI: India could face a 17 per cent hit to its GDP by 2050 in a scenario of complete global trade fragmentation, far higher than the projected 3 per cent loss for the US, according to economist Robert Koopman, former chief economist at the World Trade Organisation (WTO).
Speaking at the CII Annual Business Summit 2026, Koopman said India stands to lose significantly more than advanced economies if the world moves away from integration towards protectionism and fractured trade blocs.
“I did a piece looking at what fragmentation might mean for the global economy… India was badly hurt in that scenario,” Koopman said. “India was hurt by about 17 per cent in 2050 compared to what their GDP would be otherwise, if we went to complete fragmentation versus continued integration and liberalisation.”
He contrasted this with the United States, which he said would see only a 3 per cent negative impact under the same scenario. “I believe somebody like Donald Trump will look at that and say we only lose 3 per cent but India loses 17 per cent… and see that as a win,” he remarked.
Koopman, now a professor at American University and a former IMF and WTO economist, argued that the current shift away from globalisation is being driven more by geopolitical concerns and “vibes of fragmentation” than by actual economic fundamentals, which continue to favour integration and efficiency.
He said the rules-based global trade order built around the World Trade Organisation had evolved from healthy interdependence into “over-dependence,” especially due to hyper-specialised global supply chains dominated by efficiency considerations.
“The rules-based order under the WTO was really about interdependence, and we ended up with over-dependence,” he said.
At the same time, Koopman cautioned that technological innovation, artificial intelligence and large-scale economic forces remain difficult to reverse despite political pushes toward de-globalisation.
On India’s strategy, he backed the country’s efforts to diversify trade partnerships and deepen domestic demand, while also calling for stronger capital markets and mitigation strategies against supply chain vulnerabilities.
He noted that India remains relatively less dependent on China overall, with only around 2 per cent of Indian final demand linked to Chinese value addition. However, vulnerabilities remain acute in electronics and telecom supply chains.
“India is very dependent on Chinese parts and components that underpin your digital services exports and telecom exports,” he said, adding that India had nevertheless made significant progress in reducing dependence on Chinese pharmaceutical APIs.
Koopman also praised India’s growing network of free trade agreements and said strategic autonomy, if implemented effectively, could work to the country’s advantage in an increasingly fragmented world order.