BHUBANESWAR: Odisha may witness a cyclone in October with emergence of a moderate La Nina phenomenon by this month-end, weather experts have predicted.
La Nina, a cooling phase of the Pacific Ocean, influences the Bay of Bengal by raising sea surface temperatures and moisture, creating an environment conducive to more frequent and intense cyclones in the region.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) director general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said while neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions currently prevail, a shift toward La Nina is expected soon. It could emerge by late September, thus making conditions favourable for development of a tropical storm.
“The post-monsoon season during La Nina years does see cyclones, but variations occur. The La Nina expected this year is likely to be moderate though,” Mohapatra said.
He said La Nina particularly aids cyclogenesis in the north Bay of Bengal, where longer sea tracks allow storms to intensify. However, it will depend on formation of a system. Any prediction of a cyclone can be made only 15 days before a system forms, he clarified.
The Bay of Bengal has historically produced some of the most intense cyclones, including the 1999 Super Cyclone that devastated Odisha, Extremely Severe Cyclone Hudhud in 2014, and Severe Cyclone Dana in October 2024. Other storms such as Bulbul (2019) and Jawad (2021) underline the region’s vulnerability.
Experts attribute this to Odisha’s tropical location, warm sea surface temperatures and geography, making it one of the world’s most cyclone-prone basins. Between 1890 and 2024, Odisha recorded nearly 400 cyclonic events, 293 depressions and 107 cyclones, leaving deep economic and ecological impacts.
Meanwhile, a new low-pressure system has formed over the westcentral and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal off north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha coasts. Marking the 12th such system of this monsoon season, it is expected to bring heavy rains to Koraput, Malkangiri, Nabarangpur and Kalahandi districts on Saturday.