Politicians, parties and even pollsters may have their own agenda. But it’s the voters’ agenda that ultimately triumphs. In Kerala, that agenda was to teach the ruling CPI(M)-led LDF a lesson. And they did that more emphatically than any expert could foresee. The resounding nature of the Congress-led UDF’s victory may strain the state’s usual electoral logic, but it makes democratic sense. During the two-term LDF rule, the business climate improved, the culture of protests and political violence almost disappeared, social welfare was taken care of admirably well and, more importantly, the leadership was decisive and effective. But the coalition forgot some basic tenets of public life and stubbornly ignored the fact that the people who decide their fate were watching closely and drawing judgements.
The verdict is a response to the perceived arrogance of the CPI(M) and its leaders, the nature of the personality cult built around Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, the party’s failure to respect the sentiments of its ordinary workers, and the dangerous propensity to patronise corruption, bias and nepotism. The CPI(M) did not lose because of its misrule, but because it failed to protect its image, principles and integrity, thereby inspiring disgust. The party now has much to introspect. Its primary task, however, is to prevent an erosion of the support base. It will do well to analyse missteps and adopt corrective measures. But, more seriously, it must shed the undemocratic behaviours it acquired through the last decade.
For the Congress, the result is a chance to prove its relevance in a state where it lost two successive assembly elections. It will do well to remember that the victory has less to do with its strengths than with people’s dissatisfaction with the ruling combine. It must make amends, too, if it hopes to sustain the gains and provide effective governance. Its weakness lies in its inbuilt tendency for infighting. The next step for the party and the alliance is to pick the chief minister and ministry quickly, without fuss.
The BJP won three seats, but its gains still seem limited. That’s not for lack of trying. It only shows the party’s limits given Kerala’s demography. It has a long way to go before it can crack the state’s bipolar polity. All in all, the Kerala verdict shows that no party can afford to take the people’s will for granted.