The latest bypolls have brought cheer to the parties in power. The BJP has won the Assembly contests in West Bengal and the Nagaon Lok Sabha seat in Assam, while the ruling NR Congress has taken Thattanchavady in Puducherry. And five months after coming to power, Tamil Nadu Chief Minister C Joseph Vijay’s TVK has comfortably cleared its first electoral test by winning in Madurantakam and Dharapuram, with his intensive campaigning and continuing appeal overcoming the opposition’s call to punish former AIADMK MLAs for switching sides.
Although bypolls often favour ruling parties, these victories do not carry the same significance everywhere. With the TVK still short of a majority on its own in Tamil Nadu, the gains reduce the government’s dependence on allies such as the Left parties, whose criticism of the ruling dispensation is becoming more strident by the day. The TVK also won in what is seen as a fair fight, unlike in West Bengal, where the nominee of an opposition party was allegedly ‘persuaded’ to withdraw and the candidate of another rival was arrested.
For AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami, the questions are becoming harder to answer after yet another defeat. With the party consigned to a distant third in both constituencies, the conviction of AIADMK MLAs to stay aboard a ship seemingly unmoored and increasingly adrift may be weakened.
After all, 25 AIADMK legislators including certain party heavyweights supported Vijay’s government during the confidence vote in May. A number of AIADMK leaders are said to have quietly backed the TVK in the Western TN seat. The PMK, too, declined to back its Assembly election ally, a stand seen as tacit support for TVK, particularly in Madurantakam. Its apparent warming towards Vijay adds to EPS’s troubles.
The DMK, too, has reason to reflect. While it can take some comfort from second-place finishes in both seats, it cannot assume that disillusionment with Vijay, whenever it develops, will automatically bring voters back. It must give them reasons to return.
For Vijay, the verdict provides breathing space to fulfil promises and address shortcomings in governance. But reduced dependence on allies should not mean less willingness to hear criticism. Attracting legislators and allies is only part of building a party that lasts. Keeping voters’ confidence will require more.