External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar’s warning of a “major food crisis” in the months ahead comes at a time India has plenty of reasons to be watchful. There is no crisis yet. But irregular rainfall and lower production estimates point to a difficult agricultural year. More than 6.11 lakh hectares of farmland have been affected by excessive rain and flood, while drought has been declared in five states. As the kharif paddy acreage has shrunk almost 4 percent, the Centre has lowered its foodgrains production target for 2026-27 to 373.93 million tonnes, down 2.63 million tonnes from last year’s output. Adding to the woes, the cost of sulphur, an important fertiliser input, has risen substantially amid disruptions caused by the West Asian conflict.
These developments are noted as El Niño conditions are expected to strengthen. The growing unpredictability of rainfall makes the old way of managing agriculture increasingly difficult. A good harvest in one season cannot make up for weaknesses accumulated over years. The most obvious one is water. In several parts of the country, groundwater is being extracted faster than it can be replenished, even as farmers continue to plant crops that require large quantities of water. Drought management cannot consist only of compensation after crops fail. In water-stressed areas, crop choices will have to change. Irrigation practices will have to become more efficient, and groundwater extraction will need firmer regulation.
The government’s push for pulses and oilseeds, including the use of rice fallows in eastern India, is therefore important. So is the emphasis on crop plans based on soil moisture and water availability. These cannot remain annual conference recommendations. States need the money, seeds, technology and procurement arrangements to make such changes possible. Food security also has a nutritional side. The public distribution system has long been built around cereals. Pulses, millets and bio-fortified crops deserve a larger place in government procurement and nutrition programmes.
This will require closer cooperation between the Centre and states. The Inter-State Council, which has not held a plenary meeting since 2016, can provide one forum for discussing these policies. Jaishankar’s warning should prompt preparation, not alarm. India cannot determine the weather or global fertiliser prices. It can, however, decide whether it uses scarce water wisely and whether its agriculture is prepared for a less predictable climate.