Political parties in Kerala quickly huddled after the Election Commission announced that the Assembly election would be held on April 9. The sense of urgency was palpable, as they would get just over three weeks to prepare for a highly competitive showdown, with swing seats adding further uncertainty.
Going by the voting patterns in the last two assembly elections, Kerala has at least 10 swing constituencies spanning across six districts, where all three coalitions enjoy similar levels of support. These seats carry much weight in Kerala politics now.
In the last election, the CPI(M)-led LDF formed the government after winning seven of the 10 swing seats. The Congress-led UDF won just three and ended up being in the opposition. However, political observers will be keenly watching the performance of the BJP-led NDA, which finished runner-up in five seats last time. This could make or break the fortunes of the top two coalitions. Let's look at them:
Manjeshwar
The fight in Manjeshwar, which borders Karnataka, is between the Indian Union Muslim League, a United Democratic Front constituent, and the BJP. The BJP has been aiming to grab it for some time, but lost the seat by tiny margins in 2016 and 2021.
In 2016, BJP candidate K Surendran lost to the Muslim League's P B Abdul Razak by a mere 89 votes, while in 2021, he lost to the Muslim League's M K Ashraf by 855 votes. The fight is going to be a repeat of 2021 with the BJP fielding Surendran for the third time while Ashraf will be attempting to continue the Muslim League's winning run.
Palakkad
In Palakkad, the Congress and BJP are fighting for supremacy. Since 2011, the BJP has been able to increase its vote share here. It came close to winning the seat in 2021 when technocrat E Sreedharan rattled incumbent Shafi Parambil, before losing by a margin of 3,859 votes. This time, the fight is between Congress candidate Ramesh Pisharady and the BJP's Shobha Surendran.
Thrissur
Thrissur in central Kerala will witness a strong three-way fight once again, where even a slight swing will change the winner. The CPI's Balachandran won the seat in 2021 by a margin of 946 votes, defeating Congress candidate Padmaja Venugopal. BJP candidate Suresh Gopi, who won the Thrissur Lok Sabha constituency for the BJP in 2024, had finished third. The finish was so close that the CPI won 34.25% votes, Congress secured 33.52% and the BJP got 31.30%. The scenario is unpredictable with the BJP fielding Padmaja this time. Will the assembly constituency go the Lok Sabha way? It is very difficult to say at this moment.
Aranmula
Caste and religious equations will decide the winner in the southern Kerala constituency of Aranmula in Pathanamthitta district, which has been favouring different political outfits. While it elected a CPM candidate in 2006, the Congress regained it in 2011. The CPM got it back in 2016 and managed to retain it in 2021. Kerala's health minister Veena George is representing the constituency now. Once again, the CPI(M) is banking on Veena’s experience to retain the seat. Though the fight is between the CPI(M) and Congress, the BJP too is a crucial factor here. With Veena taking on Abin Varkey, who is also from the Christian community, the BJP, represented by M T Ramesh, is hoping to gain Hindu votes to make a difference. In the 2016 elections, Ramesh polled 23 percent votes, against 40 percent votes by the CPI(M) and 35 percent votes by the Congress.
Karunagappally
Which side will Karunagappally in southern Kerala favour this time? In 2016, CPI candidate R Ramachandran defeated Congress leader C R Mahesh by a margin of 1,759 votes. Mahesh, however, came back strongly in 2021 to beat Ramachandran by a margin of 29,208 votes. Now, the big question is can Mahesh retain the seat, beating CPI candidate M S Thara. The BJP is not a major player here.
More swing seats are present in the southernmost Thiruvananthapuram district than any other district in the state. The reason being the strong presence of the BJP, which recently won the mandate to rule the Thiruvananthapuram corporation. Everybody is keenly watching whether the civic body win will give a fillip to the BJP’s campaign.
Varkala
Varkala was a Congress stronghold till 2011, but the CPI(M) stormed it in 2016 and registered two consecutive wins. Will the CPI(M) continue its winning streak or can the Congress win it back is the big question. The NDA is not a force to reckon with in this constituency.
Thiruvanathapuram
Thiruvanathapuram constituency appears to be preferring rival political fronts one election after another. In 2016, it elected a Congress candidate V S Shivakumar with 37 percent votes, but it dumped him to pick Left Democratic Front candidate Antony Raju with 38 percent votes in 2021. On both occasions, the BJP's vote share remained the same. The big question here is which side will be affected if the BJP increases its vote share.
Kazahkkoottam
The BJP is pinning its hopes heavily on Kazahkkoottam, which favoured the CPI(M) in the last two elections. The saffron party finished second in this seat on both occasions. In 2016, it received 32 percent votes, as against CPI(M)'s 37 percent. The Congress finished third with 29 percent votes. In 2021, the BJP’s vote share dipped slightly to 29 percent while the CPI(M) increased its share to 46 percent. The CPI(M) has fielded its strong leader Kadakampally Surendran for a third time, while the BJP has fielded former Union Minister V Muralidharan.
Vattiyoorkkavu
Another strong three-way fight will happen in Vattiyoorkkavu where the CPM's sitting MLA V K Prashant will take on BJP candidate and former DGP R Sreelekha and senior Congress leader K Muraleedharan. In 2021, the BJP surged past the Congress to finish second in this constituency where caste equations play an important factor. The CPI(M) got 44 percent votes, BJP 29 percent and Congress 26 percent.
Nemom
Nemom is the only assembly seat that the BJP has ever won in Kerala. It was in 2016 when BJP veteran O Rajagopal defeated CPI(M) leader V Sivankutty by a margin of 8,671 votes. The CPI(M) made amends in 2021, regaining the seat from the BJP with a margin of 3,949 votes. However, the BJP has not lost all hope. It has fielded party chief Rajeev Chandrasekhar in a bid to add the seat to its kitty.