THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The electoral battle lines have been drawn, with major players gearing up for a decisive contest marked by distinct political stakes. However, beyond the familiar narratives, observers say the real contest lies in a churn within the state’s social base.
At the centre of this shift is Kerala’s largest and most influential Other Backward Class (OBC) community, the Ezhavas, whose political behaviour could play a decisive role in shaping the outcome. Traditionally seen as a dependable support base, particularly of the CPM-led LDF, there are growing signs of restiveness and a push for greater political assertion and representation.
Analysts tracking voting patterns note that the Ezhava community is increasingly evolving into a political identity rather than remaining just a caste group. “This transition began after the 2011 assembly election and became more visible in 2016,” said K M Sajad Ibrahim, psephologist and professor of political science at Kerala University. “Until 2016, the community largely backed the Left. After that, there were clear shifts. A section of votes began moving towards the BJP-led NDA through the Bharath Dharma Jana Sena (BDJS), a party formed in 2015 at the initiative of the Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana (SNDP) Yogam. By the 2021 election, nearly 30% of Ezhava votes aligned with the NDA, while the LDF retained around 35-45%,” he said.
Observers point out that a community once guided by social reformer Sree Narayana Guru and known for its egalitarian voting behaviour is now asserting its own identity. Political analyst Ajith Sreenivasan noted that, much like upper caste voters, Ezhavas are increasingly backing candidates from within their own community. “When two parties field Ezhava candidates, votes tend to consolidate behind the more influential candidate,” he said.
Unlike in northern states such as Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Haryana, where OBCs have emerged as a strong electoral bloc, the Ezhava community has not yet become a fully consolidated vote bank. However, many believe it is not far from emerging as a decisive bargaining force.
Estimates suggest Ezhava-Thiyya voters have a significant presence, ranging from 40% to 70%, in more than 50 assembly constituencies. Their representation across parties in the six southern districts, Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Alappuzha, Pathanamthitta, Kottayam and Idukki, is expected to be crucial. “Any front aiming to form the next government will have to perform strongly in these districts,” Ajith said.
Recent socio-political developments, however, appear to have distanced the community from the Congress. “The real contest for Ezhava votes is now between the CPM and the BJP,” Sajad observed. While around 20-25% of the community still supports the Congress, its influence has declined.
The SNDP Yogam, once led by Ezhava leaders aligned with the Congress, saw a shift under Vellappally Natesan. This coincided with a drop in the community’s representation within the Congress organisation and electoral politics. The formation of the BDJS and the rise of Ezhava leaders in the BJP further accelerated this shift.
“This also opened the doors of SNDP Yogam units to the BJP, with more workers engaging closely with the party. Unlike earlier leaders, who were often atheists or radicals, Natesan’s affinity towards Hindu rituals and traditions had a wider influence on the community,” Ajith said.
This trend has drawn sections of the community closer to Hindutva politics, particularly amid allegations that the CPM is engaging in minority appeasement.
The growing assertion of the Ezhava community was evident when the Sivagiri Mutt urged Congress leader Rahul Gandhi to field 20 OBC candidates, a rare instance of a spiritual institution making a direct political demand.
In terms of representation, the LDF has fielded 36 candidates from the community, compared to 17 by the UDF, while the NDA has fielded over 50, the highest among the fronts.
Observers say the extent to which the CPM and BJP succeed in attracting Ezhava votes could significantly reshape Kerala’s political landscape.