KOLKATA: The deletion of 6,29,428 voters across 11 Assembly segments under Kolkata North and South Lok Sabha constituencies is likely to alter electoral dynamics, with implications for the ruling Trinamool Congress.
The Union Home Minister Amit Shah, on 31 December last year, had set an ambitious target for the West Bengal BJP unit, asking it to win a minimum of 20 out of 28 Assembly seats under four Lok Sabha constituencies, Dum Dum, Kolkata North, Kolkata South and Jadavpur, in the Assembly elections in West Bengal, scheduled in two phases on April 23 and 29.
The BJP has not won a single Assembly seat in these four parliamentary constituencies in the past two Assembly elections since 2016.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the saffron party had marginal leads in only two Assembly segments, Jorashanko and Shyampukur, against the nearest Trinamool Congress candidates, out of the total 28 Assembly seats. Both Jorashanko and Shyampukur fall under the Kolkata North Lok Sabha constituency.
However, the BJP trailed the Trinamool Congress in the remaining 26 Assembly seats in terms of the results of the last Lok Sabha polls.
With the deletion of around 91 lakh voters, including more than 63 lakh categorised as absent, shifted, dead and duplicate (ASDD), and 27 lakh electors marked as ‘under adjudication’ following the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls in Bengal, the chances of materialising the target set by Shah appear brighter in some Assembly constituencies under Kolkata North and Kolkata South electoral districts.
However, the number of deleted voters, including the 27 lakh whose names have not been included in the supplementary list, could change as the Supreme Court on Thursday said those deleted individuals cleared by tribunals by April 21 for the first phase and April 27 for the second phase would be allowed to vote.
The number of post-SIR deletions in many Assembly segments of Kolkata has outstripped the lead margins of the Trinamool Congress in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
The figures suggest how the large scale SIR exercise is threatening to upset political equations, with Trinamool appearing to face a tougher contest in seats it had comfortably and consistently won.
Seven Assembly seats under Kolkata North Lok Sabha constituency are Chowringhee, Entally, Beliaghata, Jorashanko, Shyampukur, Maniktala and Cossipore Belgachaia.
According to Election Commission of India data, these seven seats have recorded deletions of 4,47,541 following the SIR exercise. The number of voters in these seats was 15,06,339 before the SIR and has now come down to 10,58,798.
Kolkata North, with these seven seats, has recorded a 30 per cent deletion of total voters, the highest in the state. Kolkata South has recorded a 27.5 per cent deletion of total electors, the second highest on a percentage basis.
“Our party has a history of getting leads in several Assembly seats in Kolkata North, Kolkata South and Jadavpur Lok Sabha constituencies in previous general elections. With deletions of huge numbers of voters in lakhs, we are confident of opening our scoreboard in Kolkata, winning several seats including Chowringhee, Jorashanko, Shyampukur and the high profile Bhabanipore,” a BJP organisational leader said.
Sources in the national poll panel said that the names of 6,29,428 ASDD voters were removed from the electoral rolls in Kolkata North and South Lok Sabha seats.
The BJP expects that the SIR process will help consolidate Hindu voters in its favour and significantly dent Trinamool’s Muslim vote bank.
An analysis of the results of past elections in Bengal and the likely impact of the deletions in several seats appears to have caused concern within Trinamool. According to political observers, the deletions have turned many seats into close contests for the party.
There is expected to be a tough fight in Bhabanipur, where Mamata Banerjee is set to take on Suvendu Adhikari, the outgoing Leader of the Opposition and BJP MLA.
Mamata had won from her home turf Bhabanipur with a margin of more than 58,000 against the BJP candidate in the 2021 by poll. With the deletion of 50,000 voters in the Hindu dominated Assembly seat, the contest is expected to be tougher for the Trinamool Congress supremo, poll observers said.
Bhabanipur has around 20 per cent minority vote bank.
Considering the impact of the deletion of 50,000 voters, Mamata has already held several organisational meetings with senior leaders of her party such as Subrata Bakshi, Firhad Hakim and Debashish Kumar.