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Explainers

GDP +31: UN's new proposal

Gross Domestic Product has become, in the words of a UN expert group, 'the number by which the world judges itself'. A new report by the group asks the world to stop judging itself so narrowly. It asks governments to count what truly shapes human life

Vismay Basu

A new UN report challenges nearly a century of economic orthodoxy. For decades, one three-letter abbreviation has shaped the fate of nations. Governments rise and fall on it. International loans are sanctioned or cancelled on the basis of it. Newspapers report it like a sports score. Gross Domestic Product, or GDP, has become, in the words of the UN’s new expert group, “the number by which the world judges itself.” A new report released this year by a Secretary-General-appointed High-Level Expert Group asks the world to stop judging itself so narrowly. It asks governments to count what truly shapes human life.

The report, titled “Counting What Counts: A Compass of Progress for People and Planet”, proposes a 31-indicator dashboard that sits beside GDP. It includes measures of health, inequality, environmental quality, social cohesion and institutional trust. This is the first time the United Nations has produced such a proposal directly at the request of Member States. The report arrives at a moment when the limits of GDP are no longer a fringe academic complaint. They are visible in everyday political life.

GDP tells only part of the story

To grasp the core of the debate, we have a great domestic example. Gujarat, long celebrated as India’s growth engine, regularly records one of the highest Gross State Domestic Products in the country. Kerala, by contrast, occupies a lower position in GDP rankings.

However, the social indicators juxtapose a diametrically contrasting portrayal. Kerala’s literacy rate stands near 96%, the highest in India. Its infant mortality rate resembles that of several middle-income European countries. Life expectancy, female workforce participation, and public health outcomes in Kerala remain stronger than in states with far larger economies. Gujarat, despite its economic opulence, trails on several of these measures. This is not an anomaly. On the contrary, it presents one of the starkest Indian examples that reveals the inherent limitation identified by the UN report. GDP measures the volume of economic activity. And it stops there. Every other aspect of human life remains unrecognised in that metric.

The genesis of GDP

National income accounting was developed by Simon Kuznets for the United States Department of Commerce during the 1930s. He was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1971 for this effort. The Great Depression had created a scale of economic activities in a nation. Kuznets himself had warned as early as 1934 that the welfare of a nation could not be fettered exclusively by national income alone. GDP was formally standardised through the System of National Accounts developed under the auspices of the United Nations in 1953. By the postwar years, it had become the universal benchmark through which nations were ranked and classified. The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund embedded it into their lending systems. The Cold War gave it ideological utility.

What were the other methods?

Even in the 20th century, there existed other measures for national income accounting. The Soviet Union and its allied states used to apply Net Material Product, or NMP, a measure designed under central planning systems, instead of GDP. NMP counted only what Soviet planners considered “productive” labour. Manufacturing, agriculture, construction and mining were included. Services such as education, healthcare, finance, and public administration were excluded. This exclusion resulted in undercounting large sections of its own economy, including sectors in which it had invested heavily. Education and healthcare disappeared from national accounts. When the socialist bloc collapsed and its economies entered the global system, they adopted the UN’s System of National Accounts and recalibrated their economies from the ground up.

Though GDP includes services, it excludes unpaid domestic labour, ignores environmental depletion, and conceals inequalities in income distribution.

National income in the mercantilist period

Before GDP and modern national accounting, rulers measured wealth in rougher but revealing ways. Mercantilist thinkers between the 16th and 18th centuries, among them Thomas Mun, Jean-Baptiste Colbert, and William Petty, equated national wealth with stores of precious metals or bullion accumulated through trade surpluses. The aim was to export more than you import.

William Petty, often described as the father of political arithmetic, made one of the earliest attempts to estimate national income in England during the 1660s. He counted land, labour and capital stock. It was an early recognition that wealth extended beyond bullion locked inside vaults. The Physiocrats in 18th-century France argued that only agriculture produced real value, and their estimates reflected that conviction. The Industrial Revolution shifted attention toward manufacturing, trade, and services. By the 20th century, these ideas had hardened into the standardised GDP framework.

The debate

GDP has had an illustrious list of defenders. Robert Solow argued that productivity growth, measured through GDP, was the main driver of long-term improvements in human welfare. Paul Samuelson and William Nordhaus treated GDP as the best available measure of economic performance in their works. Economists at the World Bank spent decades showing that rising per capita GDP often correlated with reductions in extreme poverty, child mortality and illiteracy. Those correlations are real. But it had its boundaries too. Joseph Stiglitz, who serves on the expert group behind the new report, co-chaired the 2009 Stiglitz-Sen-Fitoussi Commission. The commission argued that societies needed to move from measuring production to measuring well-being. Diane Coyle, in her book GDP: A Brief But Affectionate History, described how GDP fails to capture the digital economy, unpaid labour, and ecological destruction. Kate Raworth proposed the “doughnut economics” framework, where societies are judged by whether they remain within social and ecological limits at the same time.

Amartya Sen’s capabilities approach, developed during the 1980s and 1990s and later reflected in the Human Development Index introduced by the United Nations Development Programme in 1990, argued that development should be understood as an expansion of freedoms and human capacities, not simply the growth of output. The deepest criticism, advanced by Sen and Stiglitz alike, concerns distribution. GDP tells you the size of the pie. It does not reveal who gets to eat it.

SDGs as an attempt to expand the horizon

The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, adopted in 2015, already carried an implicit admission that GDP alone was inadequate. The 17 goals and 169 targets cover hunger, education, climate action, public health, peace, and institutional accountability. GDP measures none of these directly. The SDGs reflected a growing recognition that a country could expand economically while degrading ecosystems, widening inequality, and weakening democratic institutions.

The new Beyond GDP report builds directly on the SDG framework. Nearly half of the proposed 31 indicators come from SDG metrics already collected by many countries. This means implementation would not require building entirely new statistical systems. The report also proposes indicators for subjective well-being, loneliness as a marker of social cohesion, confidence in public institutions, and natural capital accounting. These are dimensions that the SDGs touched upon but never fully integrated.

UN Expert Group’s argument

The report, co-chaired by Kaushik Basu of Cornell University and Nora Lustig of Tulane University, with Joseph Stiglitz among its members, builds its argument carefully. It does not call for the abolition of GDP. It argues that GDP alone has become a dangerous simplification. The report records a striking paradox. Between 1980 and 2025, the global economy contracted in only two years, 2009 and 2020. Across the same period, inequality widened, environmental destruction accelerated, trust in institutions weakened, and many young people in wealthy countries reported lower life satisfaction than their parents did at the same age.

The proposed dashboard organises 31 indicators around four broad pillars. Foundational principles such as peace, human rights, and planetary boundaries are measured through conflict deaths, discrimination rates, greenhouse gas emissions, and biodiversity indicators. Current well-being is tracked through health, education, security, and subjective life satisfaction. Equity and inclusion are measured through the Gini index, wealth concentration among the richest 1%, and multidimensional poverty. Sustainability and resilience are assessed through five forms of capital: produced, human, social, institutional, and natural. The aim is to connect present policy choices with future human well-being. The report expects governments to set up national progress dashboards by 2027 and embed them into budgeting. It admits that the expert group itself could not agree on a single aggregate indicator. The politics of assigning value to different forms of well-being proved too contentious. The group recommends the creation of a scientific committee to continue that work.

But would governments built around quarterly growth targets truly accept a measure of progress that may expose the GDP failures? If constitutional morality places upon governments the responsibility to secure dignity, education, health, equality, social security, and a decent life, should national accounting not reflect those obligations as well?

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