The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is set to strengthen its position in Parliament following a rebellion within the Trinamool Congress (TMC), bringing the ruling coalition closer to a two-thirds majority in the Rajya Sabha, though it remains well short of that mark in the Lok Sabha.
The developments come as the government seeks the numbers required to pass constitutional amendment bills, which need the support of at least two-thirds of members present and voting in both Houses of Parliament. The government is exploring the possibility of reviving the delimitation bill needed to implement women's reservation in the Lok Sabha ahead of the 2029 general election, government sources said.
The NDA's strength in the Rajya Sabha is expected to rise from 148 to 151 after the current round of elections, with the alliance poised to secure support from independent members in Jharkhand and Mizoram.
The coalition's tally could increase further after the resignation of three TMC MPs, which would pave the way for the NDA to win all three vacant Rajya Sabha seats from West Bengal in the subsequent bypolls. That would take the alliance's strength to 154 members, nine short of the 163 seats required for a two-thirds majority in the 245-member House.
Additional resignations from TMC members in the Upper House could further improve the NDA's prospects of reaching that threshold.
However, the alliance's numbers could face fresh challenges later this year.
Ten Rajya Sabha members from Uttar Pradesh are due to retire in November, and the Samajwadi Party could improve its representation in the House, reflecting its stronger position in the state assembly.
The opposition INDIA bloc currently has the support of 64 Rajya Sabha MPs. Its strength has been reduced by the exit of the DMK, which has eight members in the House, and the decision of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), with three MPs, to distance itself from the grouping.
AAP's numbers in the Rajya Sabha had fallen after seven of its 10 MPs, led by Raghav Chadha, left the party and joined the BJP in April.
Several regional parties, including the YSR Congress Party (YSRCP), Biju Janata Dal (BJD) and Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK), continue to hold seats that could prove significant in close votes.
In the Lok Sabha, the NDA's position remains stronger in absolute terms but further from the two-thirds threshold.
The alliance's strength could rise to around 313 members if nearly 20 rebel TMC MPs form a separate group and extend support to the government. Even with such support, the NDA would remain well below the 363 members required for a two-thirds majority in the 543-member Lok Sabha.
This comes as the rebel faction of TMC MPs are expected to meet Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla on Monday seeking recognition as the "real TMC" parliamentary group. The party has 28 members in the Lok Sabha and 13 in Rajya Sabha, of whom three have resigned so far.
Notably, the Mamata Banerjee-led party has been rocked by a rebellion following its defeat in the West Bengal assembly elections.
Last week, more than two-thirds of the TMC's MLAs -- 58 out of 80 -- broke away from the official legislature party and secured recognition as the principal opposition bloc in the West Bengal assembly under expelled legislator Ritabrata Banerjee. The rebel camp has since claimed that its strength has risen further.
The crisis later spread to Parliament, with rebel MPs led by Kakoli Ghosh Dastidar claiming the support of more than 20 Lok Sabha members.
A purported list containing the names and signatures of 19 TMC Lok Sabha MPs has been circulated online, although the alleged letter sent to the Speaker has not been made public. Dissident leaders say the document reflects support for their effort to seek recognition.
The list reportedly includes Kakoli Ghosh Dastidar, Satabdi Roy, Bapi Haldar, Sharmila Sarkar, Prasun Bandyopadhyay, Jagadish Barma Basunia, Asit Kumar Mal, Arup Chakraborty, Rachna Banerjee, Saayoni Ghosh, Khalilur Rahaman, Abu Taher Khan, Yusuf Pathan, Mitali Bag, Mala Roy, Kalipada Soren, Deepak Adhikari, June Malia and Partha Bhowmick.