RANCHI: While leaders of the ruling alliance have repeatedly maintained that their MLAs remain united and have appointed senior party leaders as authorised agents to oversee the voting process, the likelihood of cross-voting in the Rajya Sabha election appears slim.
However, cross-voting remains the only route through which the independent candidate Parimal Nathwani can secure a berth in the Upper House.
Notably, the role of first- and second-preference votes, as well as instances of cross-voting, is not new to Rajya Sabha elections in Jharkhand, which have witnessed several such political twists in the past.
Moreover, Nathwani, who is associated with the Reliance Group, has an unbeaten track record—a record he intends to maintain as he enters the fray once again as an independent candidate.
Meanwhile, all the MLAs from the Congress party, RJD and CPI (ML) met at Hotel BNR Chanakya in the afternoon to discuss their poll strategy. Party leaders expressed confidence that their candidates will win both seats.
“Congress has fielded Pranav Jha as their candidate for the Rajya Sabha seat, who has the support of all the alliance partners, whether it is Congress, RJD or CPI (ML). Therefore, I can assure you that all the 28 votes required for the victory of Pranav Jha are intact,” said CPI (ML) MLA Arup Chatterjee.
Senior RJD leader Bhola Yadav, who has been appointed as party agent for the RS Elections, also asserted that INDIA Bloc MLAs are intact.
“There is no confusion, as all 56 MLAs of the INDIA Bloc are intact and both of our candidates will become victorious,” said Bhola Yadav.
Health Minister Irfan Ansari, however, claimed that five of the BJP MLAs are in their contact and have expressed their desire to cast their votes in favour of the Congress candidate.
Later, in the evening, all 56 MLAs met again at the Chief Minister’s residence and discussed the poll strategy. A mock poll was also conducted to avoid any error by the MLAs during the actual polling on Thursday.
Notably, the Grand Alliance holds a total of 56 MLAs. Of those, 34 belong to the JMM. Winning a single seat requires 28 votes; thus, JMM’s victory on one seat is certain.
Even after securing a win for its candidate, the JMM will still have six surplus votes. Whereas, Congress has 16 MLAs. After utilising 28 first-preference votes, six votes of JMM MLAs will remain surplus. Additionally, there are four RJD MLAs and two CPI(ML) MLAs. If all remain united, Congress’ victory is certain.
Whereas, NDA currently commands 24 votes in the Assembly—21 from the BJP and one each from AJSU, JD(U) and LJP. With the winning mark beyond its present tally, Nathwani remains dependent on cross-voting and could emerge victorious only if legislators from the ruling alliance vote in his favour.
According to experts, if all 34 JMM MLAs back the party's Rajya Sabha nominee, the Congress candidate would have only 22 first-preference votes, while the BJP-backed independent candidate would secure 24–25. To stay ahead in the race for the second seat, Congress would need at least four first-preference votes from the JMM.
The Independent candidate appears confident of 24–25 votes. However, if the number of valid votes falls below 81 due to absences or invalid ballots, the winning quota would drop, potentially changing the equation.
Such a scenario could benefit the independent candidate and further weaken Congress's prospects.
Both Congress and the independent candidate are likely to depend on second-preference votes.
Congress can secure victory only if it receives at least four first-preference votes and a corresponding number of second-preference votes from the JMM's surplus votes.
For the independent candidate, success would hinge on a lower vote quota and a share of the JMM's excess votes.