NEW DELHI: The contentious issue of delimitation has arisen again after the Union Home Ministry published the latest round of the Sample Registration System (SRS) Bulletin. The sample data shows a widening population gap between southern and northern states.
According to the SRS Bulletin 2024, Kerala recorded the lowest birth rate, defined as number of births per 1,000 persons, among major states at 11.1, followed by Tamil Nadu at 11.6, Andhra Pradesh at 14.3, Karnataka at 14.9, and Telangana at 15.7. In contrast, Bihar recorded the highest birth rate at 26.8, followed by Uttar Pradesh at 23.5, Rajasthan at 22.8, Madhya Pradesh at 22.5, Chhattisgarh at 22.2, and Jharkhand at 21.5.
The report assumes significance amid the political showdown that took place between the Centre and the Opposition after a constitutional amendment to expand the Lok Sabha seats to 815 and carry out delimitation based on the 2011 Census was defeated in the lower house during the Budget session of Parliament.
Speaking to this newspaper, DMK MP T Sumathy said the latest total fertility rate (TFR) data, defined as the number of births per woman,reinforces concerns repeatedly raised by Tamil Nadu and other southern states.
“Tamil Nadu’s TFR has declined to 1.3, far below the replacement level, because of sustained investments in public healthcare, women’s education, nutrition, and welfare policies under the Dravidian model,” she said.
The report shows that India’s TFR has dropped below the replacement level in all states, except in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand.
Congress MP Manickam Tagore said the widening demographic gap could turn the “demographic reward” into a political disadvantage for southern states. “The report underscores our concern,” he said.
Echoing similar concerns, CPI(M) MP John Brittas called for a revised delimitation framework, arguing that neither a population-only approach nor a 50 per cent increase in Lok Sabha seats would adequately address regional disparities. The exercise should not be based on the 2011 Census, he said. “The trend clearly shows that Hindi heartland states are likely to remain above replacement fertility levels for some time,” Brittas said, adding, “Over the coming decades, the demographic balance between southern and northern states will continue to diverge. That’s why we need a new formula for delimitation.”
India’s former chief statistician Pronab Sen said the SRS data reflected long-term demographic changes already underway, but cautioned against drawing final conclusions before the next Census is conducted. “The next Census will capture factors such as reverse migration and other demographic shifts that have taken place over the years,” he said.