BENGALURU: India’s coastline spanning around 11,000 km stands at the risk of experiencing severe heat spikes. Around 40 coastal districts, many of which are in Tamil Nadu and Kerala, will see summer temperatures spiking by approximately 1.5 degrees Celsius, bringing them close to high summer wet-bulb temperatures, nearing the 31 degrees Celsius level that is considered dangerous for humans, stated a report released by Azim Premji University (Bengaluru) on Friday.
The study uses Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model projections corrected for regional bias to improve accuracy. It warned that the window for adaptation is rapidly narrowing as the 1.5 degrees Celsius warming threshold is expected to be reached across India’s administrative regions in the near future.
Findings of the study make for alarming reading. Ernakulam is projected to record the highest increase in maximum summer temperatures among all coastal districts, with a projected increase of 1.3 degrees Celsius. Coastal Maharashtra and Gujarat are expected to get above-normal rainfall, with Surat seeing almost a 23% increase in rainfall during monsoon.
Sea levels are projected to rise by 15 cm by 2050, driving out populations and livelihoods in regions like Ganjam in Odisha. Rapid acceleration in sea surface temperatures (0.27 degree Celsius per decade) is also increasing the likelihood of intense tropical cyclones.
“The data in this report is a mirror that reflects a reality we can no longer afford to ignore. Whether it is the heat stress in Ernakulam or the rising salinity in the Sundarbans, our vulnerability is visible in all aspects of our daily lives,” said Harini Nagendra, director at the School of Climate Change and Sustainability, Azim Premji University.