The partners-turned-frenemies, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), are likely to forge an alliance ahead of the 2027 Punjab Assembly elections.
The SAD severed its ties and exited the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) on September 26, 2020.
Union Home Minister Amit Shah fuelled speculation about a possible BJP–Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) reunion when he said on October 22, 2026, that an NDA government would come to power in Punjab in the 2027 Assembly elections.
The timing of Amit Shah's announcement is significant and has drawn considerable anticipation and intrigue across the political spectrum.
Coming from Shah, who was reportedly among those most angered by the SAD’s sudden departure from the ruling NDA coalition, these remarks carry weight and are, by far, the clearest indication yet that the estranged partners are exploring a reunion.
Sources said internal BJP surveys indicate the party stands to gain electorally by allying with the SAD rather than contesting the elections alone. Without a pre-poll alliance between the BJP and the SAD in Punjab, the Congress could gain a clear edge in the elections. The Congress, the only pan-Indian challenger to the BJP, has consistently pressured the Union government through protests and political campaigns, including rallies against Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar, with Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha, Rahul Gandhi, leading the charge.
Thus, a pre-poll pact between the erstwhile allies could help them counter both the Congress and the ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), positioning the alliance as the principal challenger to the ruling party in Punjab.
“Of the 117 Assembly seats in Punjab, the BJP might contest around 55, with the remaining seats likely to be contested by the Akalis. The seats allotted to the splinter faction, the Shiromani Akali Dal (Punar Surjit), could either come out of the BJP’s quota or be accommodated separately if the faction merges back with the SAD. In that case, Sukhbir Badal might allocate seats to its leadership, but that is yet to be decided,” a senior SAD leader said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
The BJP has relented from its earlier stand that it should be the senior partner in the alliance, as it seems to have finally, though grudgingly, accepted that it needs the Akali Dal's support to make a decent mark in the upcoming assembly polls.
The signs of rapprochement among Akali factions are already emerging, with Prem Singh Chandumajra, leader of Shiromani Akali Dal (Punar Surjit), backing Sukhbir Badal’s call for Akali solidarity for Punjab’s sake. A broad Akali unity is expected to precede SAD’s NDA reentry ahead of 2027 Punjab polls.
For the BJP, it is important to deal with both AAP and Congress. Though AAP’s electoral influence is limited to Punjab, where it rules, the Arvind Kejriwal-led outfit is gaining influence through public movements led by the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP).
Beyond the CJP and Congress-led movements on electoral transparency, the BJP also faces challenges in other states that go to polls early next year, apart from Punjab.
In August this year, Sukhbir Badal and PM Modi met cordially at the Parliament House complex, their first official engagement since SAD left the NDA six years ago. Since then, signs of a reunion have only grown. PM Modi’s point man for Punjab polls, CR Patil, has also met Sukhbir, and now Amit Shah has extended an olive branch.
While SAD supported NDA’s presidential candidate Droupadi Murmu on July 1, 2022, ahead of that year's July 18 presidential poll, Sukhbir recently reversed SAD’s earlier opposition to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s pet agenda of delimitation and 33 per cent women’s reservation and backed it.
In June this year, a formal resolution was passed at an NDA meeting acknowledging seven foundational figures of the coalition. The list prominently featured the late Parkash Singh Badal of the SAD, alongside Atal Bihari Vajpayee of the BJP and Balasaheb Thackeray of the Shiv Sena. Earlier, on April 27, 2023, then BJP president J P Nadda had attended the funeral of NDA stalwart Parkash Singh Badal in Muktsar.
However, even if the two parties reunite, the road ahead may not be smooth. The SAD leadership continues to face unpopularity among voters, particularly within its core support base of rural Jat Sikh farmers, following the death of former Punjab Chief Minister and party patriarch Parkash Singh Badal.