CHANDIGARH: A new analysis by Delhi-based climate research organisation Climate Trends has found that stubble burning in Punjab and Haryana had little influence on the national capital’s air quality during September and October between 2024 and 2026, amid a political row between the BJP and AAP over Delhi’s toxic air.
The report states that local, non-agricultural sources played a larger role in determining Delhi’s air quality. It highlighted that the improvement in Delhi’s AQI in recent years hides “a worse ordinary day” and stated that while the mean AQI fell from 169.3 to 142.6 between 2025 and 2026 — a 15.8 per cent drop — the median AQI, representing the air quality most people in Delhi typically experienced, deteriorated. The median AQI rose from 135 to 154, an increase of 14.1 per cent over the same period.
“Fire events in Punjab and Haryana were essentially unchanged between 2025 and 2026, down just four per cent (201 to 193), yet Delhi’s AQI fell 15.8 per cent over the same period. Between 2024 and 2025, by contrast, fires dropped 88 per cent while Delhi’s AQI fell 3.9 per cent,” the report said.
The mean AQI is the simple average of daily readings, while the median AQI is the middle value when daily readings are arranged from lowest to highest. The median AQI is considered a better measure of a typical day and is barely affected by one or two extreme spikes.
“The improvement comes almost entirely from the near-disappearance of extreme days: AQI above 200 fell from 10 days to three, and nothing crossed 300, compared with a peak of 353 the year before. This is a flattening of the worst spikes, not a cleaner autumn (September-October) overall,” the analysis said.
It also found that during the September-October period this year, weather conditions, which would typically have worsened pollution, did not do so, amid strengthening El Niño conditions and a decline in rainfall. Rainfall was 78.2 per cent lower during the period compared with the corresponding period in 2025.
“This narrows the likely explanation toward something changing in Delhi’s own emissions rather than the sky or the fields,” the analysis said.
Meanwhile, a study by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), based on a survey of 1,588 farmers across 144 villages in 12 districts of Haryana conducted between January and March this year, found a significant gap in the incentives available to farmers adopting alternatives to stubble burning. It found that only 7 per cent of farmers who bale crop residue receive payments from buyers.
The survey found that farmers manage paddy straw through multiple methods. About 39 per cent use the residue as fodder, 38 per cent bale it, and 32 per cent incorporate it into the soil using machinery such as Super Seeders.
“Only 6 per cent of surveyed farmers admitted to burning paddy straw, although the study says that the figure is likely underreported. But 26 per cent said that stubble burning occurred in their villages,” it added.