NEW DELHI: A new report from the Climate Impact Lab projects that this year’s "Super El Niño" could lead to approximately 16,000 additional deaths in India due to extreme heat.
Globally, the figure could rise to 451,000 deaths caused by extreme hot weather.
"Super El Niño" events, officially called very strong El Niño events, are climatic phenomena resulting from the average sea surface temperatures in parts of the Pacific Ocean rising by 2° Celsius or more.
El Niño is a natural climatic phenomenon defined as unusual warming of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, which impacts major parts of the global climate.
This year, India almost received a 15% deficient monsoon till September 19. This alarming prediction adds to the expected impacts of droughts, wildfires, and flooding resulting from rising temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns, as this El Niño may become the strongest on record.
The report identifies regions where the highest number of heat-related deaths is expected and highlights opportunities for immediate actions to save lives.
It forecasts an additional 15,800 deaths( +or-1600 deaths) in India between September 2026 and February 2027 compared to a normal year.
Notably, nearly half of the deaths are anticipated to occur during three months -- from December to February.
Furthermore, the report indicates that the increase in deaths will not cease with the end of El Niño; it is expected to continue rising as the Indian summer begins.
The report emphasises that effective measures to reduce deaths include strengthening early warning systems, improving cooling systems, and enhancing worker protections.
However, these resources are currently available in only a limited number of locations.
The Climate Impact Lab’s global network of economists, climate scientists, data engineers, and risk analysts is working to determine where climate adaptations are most necessary and what investments will yield the greatest benefits for communities.
The deaths attributed to this El Niño are expected to be concentrated mainly in the Global South. Over the next six months, the report estimates an additional 66,800 deaths across the Sahel region in Africa, with nearly half occurring in Nigeria (31,400).
Other affected countries include Sudan, facing 17,500 additional heat-related deaths; Niger, with 10,000; and Chad, with 8,000.
In Southeast Asia, the extra heat is anticipated to result in 19,400 additional deaths across the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia, along with 19,300 deaths in Indonesia.
India is projected to experience 15,800 more deaths, while Brazil in South America is expected to face 13,300 deaths due to the heat associated with El Niño.