Monsoon indiscipline has been mystifying Kerala over the past decade. To the extent that not just environmentalists and scientists, even common people have begun murmuring about a super El Nino and climate change.
The concern was perhaps most visible at Kerala’s beloved tourist destination, Thekkady, where June and July saw very little rain. During a recent visit, everyone there had a comment on the erratic rain pattern.
Jeep driver Azharuddeen M pointed to the tea plantations. “This year, there hasn’t been much rain. We aren’t used to water crises, only floods. But this year, we are anticipating one,” he said.
“The tea bushes need a lot of water. But the weather has betrayed us. We haven’t seen such a dry monsoon. Small-time farmers will suffer the most.”
Forest guide Rahul pointed to still-dry watermarks on the banks of Periyar.
“Though it’s monsoon, Thekkady has not got much rain this year. The river is still dry in many parts, like it is usually during summer. The makeshift rafts we usually use to cross the river now lie unused,” he sighed.
“These types of intense weather conditions are one reason why we are seeing more man-animal conflict in many parts of the state.”
Dr Vijaykumar P, assistant professor of environmental sciences at the University of Kerala, was planning to plant paddy in his new field in Thrissur. However, as June sizzled, veteran farmers told him to wait.
Things, however, took a turn in August.
“The farmers are now planning a post-Onam planting since August is seeing rainfall, instead of June and July. A break from the routine,” says Vijaykumar.
According to data from the India Meteorological Department, Kerala received 1,168mm of rainfall from June 1 to August 11. This is 22 per cent less than the average rainfall of 1,498.2 mm in the corresponding period.
However, when specifically zooming in on August, one can see a dramatic shift. Kerala recorded 205.8 mm of rainfall against the average 73.2 mm in the first four days of the month.
This was an excess of 181 per cent, according to official data.
S Abhilash, director of the Cusat Advanced Centre for Atmospheric Radar Research, spots the silver lining. “With June-July being unusually dry, the August spell brought us some rainfall. We should be glad. Otherwise, we would have been in crisis — a drought with power shortage,” he says.
“Now, on the other hand, had June-July also witnessed heavy rains, we would have been battling a crisis of excess.”
This uncertainty is visible in the past rainfall data for August. While 2025 saw 356mm of rainfall in August, it was 311mm in 2024, and a mere 59.6mm in 2023.
In 2026, so far, August has seen 314.8 mm of rainfall.
Private weather analyst K Jamshad, better known as “Weatherman Kerala” on social media, says the rain pattern in Kerala has been changing for some years. “Barring the aberration in 2023, the southwest monsoon in Kerala appears to strengthen only in August. This is a relatively new phenomenon,” he says.
Until a decade ago, he adds, the monsoon rain was a long affair. It began in June, and it rained for a whole day, continuously. Sometimes as drizzle, sometimes stronger. “But now, August is the month that gives Kerala heavy rain. The nature of rain has also changed. We are seeing more sporadic but intense rainfall,” he notes.
Researcher Vijaykumar concurs. “Such rain patterns were normal in the Konkan and Mumbai regions,” he says.
“But in the past few years, Kerala is also seeing cloudburst-like situations. Next, there is a possibility of a slightly intense northwestern monsoon as well in October.”
This year, analysts have been studying the super El Nino for answers to this new emerging pattern. “However, the impact of El Nino hasn’t been truly felt in Kerala yet,” says Vijaykumar.
“It will be felt more next summer, which is likely to be way more intense than previous years. The state better prepare for that.”
What do these changes in patterns mean for common people? It is not uncommon to come across questions about whether Kerala should rethink its farming traditions and school calendar.
Vijaykumar says many farmers are already doing so. “Especially some who depend on rain for water are planting late this monsoon season,” he says.
According to Jamshad, the harvest season will also change as August is seeing more than usual rain. “During the paddy harvest, there shouldn’t be rain. So, farmers might have to begin the process before rain intensifies in August,” he adds.
The school holidays schedule is a conundrum. “There is no sure-shot solution,” says Jamshad. “We cannot say these patterns will be consistent,”
Shekhar Kuriakose, secretary of KSDMA and the chief resilience officer of the State Climate Change Adaptation Mission, agrees. “The school calendar can be considered carefully, keeping in mind not to reduce the total number of education days,” he says.
“Exposing children to hot weather during summer is probably more concerning, especially health-wise. A possible remedy is to enhance the online education system that was developed during the pandemic period.”
According to Rajeevan K, a meteorologist at the State Emergency Operations Centre, the weather comes with new challenges every year.
“Climate change, global warming and natural phenomena like El Nino and La Nina have made weather unpredictable. The difference now is that the impact — especially disasters — is much more visible,” he says. “All we can do is adapt and be more careful.”