NEW DELHI: History shows that Bihar is a state where high voter turnout has consistently acted as a catalyst for changes in governance, and this year’s strong participation of voters may not necessarily be a source of comfort for the NDA. Or this time can be an exception. One never knows.
It is only a matter of hours before the counting begins on Friday and the fate of the candidates who contested the polls will be known. The exit polls are in favour of the incumbent government led by the JD (U). Even then an uncertain silence prevails before the counting of polls.
“Es baar ka election fas gaya hai aisa lagta hai. Majorty NDA and Opposition ke bich bahut kam se hone ki sambhvana lag rahi” (“This time, the Bihar legislative assembly election seems to have got stuck in uncertainty. The margin of majority between NDA and the Opposition seems likely to be very narrow”), remarked a senior leader of the NDA, preferring anonymity, who had closely monitored the election.
In 2025, according to official data, Bihar recorded an overall voter turnout of more than 68%, sparking speculation both for and against the ruling NDA, which faced the Opposition under the Mahagathbandhan alliance.
The state saw a 65.08% turnout in the first phase of polling held on November 6, which rose to 68.76% in the second phase. Overall, voter turnout increased by 9.62 percentage points compared with the 2020 Assembly elections, when it stood at 57.29%.
As the record shows, Bihar has witnessed a change in power three times when voter turnout rose by about 5%. For instance, in the 1967 Assembly elections, the Congress government was ousted following an increase in voter turnout to 51.5% from 44.5% recorded in 1962 -- an almost 7% rise.
Similarly, in the 1980 Bihar Assembly elections, voter turnout rose to around 57.3% compared with 50.5% in 1977, again resulting in a change of government.
More recently, in 1990, another shift in power occurred as turnout increased to 62%, a rise of about 5.7% from 56.3% in 1985. Consequently, the Janata Dal ousted Congress from power. Since then, voter turnout in Bihar has continued to rise more or less in every election.
One of the key factors on which the NDA particularly relies for retaining power in Bihar is the participation of women voters.
According to data, out of 3.51 crore registered women voters, 2.52 crore cast their votes in both phases which is around 71.60% of those enrolled. However, only 62.80% of the total registered and eligible male voters, numbering around 2.47 crore, exercised their franchise in both phases of the election.