DEHRADUN: Four mountainous districts in Uttarakhand are facing a growing threat from earthquake-induced landslides, with Rudraprayag identified as the most vulnerable, according to a new study.
Geoscientists warn that a 250-kilometre stretch of land in the state is under severe tectonic pressure, capable of triggering a massive earthquake of magnitude 7 to 8.
The district-wise research, conducted by IIT Roorkee's Centre of Excellence in Disaster Management and Humanitarian Assistance, has been published in an international journal. The report, authored by Akshat Vashishtha, Shivani Joshi, and S.K. Siva Subramanian, highlights the extreme seismic sensitivity of the Himalayan region.
While landslides are common in the area, the study warns that future earthquake-induced landslides could pose an even greater danger. “The Himalayan region is highly susceptible to seismic activities, leading to frequent landslide incidents. Our findings indicate that future seismically triggered landslides could escalate into a much larger threat for Uttarakhand,” one of the researchers said.
For the first time, the study has carried out district-level zoning of earthquake-induced landslide risks in Uttarakhand. It analysed potential hazards under different seismic intensity scenarios and earthquake recurrence periods, consistently identifying Rudraprayag as the most susceptible district.
Pithoragarh, Chamoli, and Uttarkashi were also found to be highly prone to major landslides triggered by seismic activity. The detailed assessment provides vital data for disaster management agencies to plan targeted mitigation strategies and enhance regional resilience.
Geoscientists have also pointed out that a 250-kilometre stretch in Uttarakhand is under immense tectonic pressure. This zone, extending from Tanakpur in Kumaon to Dehradun, lies in one of the most earthquake-prone parts of the Himalayas and is currently in a state of “contraction,” causing deep underground stress.
“Uttarkashi, for instance, falls within seismic zone 5, making it highly vulnerable to earthquakes,” Dr. Sushil Kumar, senior seismologist at the Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology, told the TNIE. He noted that the region has not experienced a major earthquake in a long time, raising fears about accumulating underground energy.
The continuous movement of the Indian and Eurasian tectonic plates is causing this stress, with the Indian plate moving at an average of 50–52 millimetres per year. This friction leads to micro-earthquakes at depths of 10–20 kilometres. Dr. Kumar explained that when stress builds on a larger scale, it culminates in a major rupture, as seen in past earthquakes in Chamoli and Uttarkashi. He also pointed to significant thrust activity in the Mohand area of Dehradun and near the Shanshahi Ashram, which are areas of heightened geological stress.