GUWAHATI: Traditionally one-sided, the April 9 Assam Assembly elections are likely to throw up a “contest” in the true sense. There has always been a huge gap between the largest and second-largest parties in terms of the number of seats they won. In the past eight elections, the closest was a 25-seat gap in 1996, when the regional Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) won 59 seats compared to the Congress’s 34.
Today, “contest” is the buzzword. Only time will tell whether the BJP-led NDA can hold its Assam fort or the Congress can upset the NDA applecart, but people at large believe that there will be a contest this time. Observers say the silent voters will largely determine whether there is a contest.
“The BJP has already managed to attract a lot of voters through its populist welfare schemes and development initiatives,” said Jayanta Krishna Sarmah, who teaches political science at Gauhati University. Similarly, he continued, the Congress-led six-party Opposition front has been able to take up some pertinent issues, including the demand for “justice for Zubeen Garg,” though whether it translates into votes remains to be seen.
“The votes of the ‘floating or undecided’ voters will be crucial for both ruling and Opposition sides,” Sarmah stated. Anup Sharma, a senior journalist, agrees about the contest, but adds, “The BJP’s seats will get reduced although NDA is likely to retain power.”
Both the NDA and the Opposition alliance have their strengths and weaknesses.
The NDA has been in power since 2016 and anti-incumbency could be a major factor against it. The second issue likely to affect the NDA is the unfulfilled demand of justice for Garg, who, according to Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, was “murdered.”
He had stated, “Why would you vote for us if we cannot ensure justice for Zubeen?” And when the demand for justice grew louder, he countered it by claiming that the government had already fulfilled it by filing the charge sheet on time and arresting seven suspects.
The government also faces serious corruption charges. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi accused Sarma of opening a “land ATM,” alleging that vast swathes of land were sold to a few industrialists, and that the proceeds were being used in politics.
The NDA’s greatest strength will be the welfare schemes, particularly “Orunodoi.” Under it, women from economically disadvantaged families receive a monthly financial assistance of `1,250. The NDA also won many hearts by ensuring clean recruitments in government departments and boosting infrastructure development over the past decade.
As for the Congress, its greatest weakness is that it has been reduced to a one-leader party. The Congress’s state president, Gaurav Gogoi, is the only leader left with a statewide reach. The party is hoping to cash in on Gogoi’s clean image. There are no corruption charges against his family, despite his father serving as the chief minister for 15 years.
Gogoi faced personal attacks from the Chief Minister over his Pakistan visit, but, ultimately, as the Congress leader claimed, Sarma could not convince people with his charges.
The Congress faces the serious charge of encouraging the infiltration of illegal Bangladeshi migrants, shielding them and settling them in forests and government lands when it was in power.
Union Home Minister Amit Shah has consistently attacked the Congress on the infiltration issue. Even on the last day of campaigning, Shah claimed that the BJP had stopped infiltration during its first term in Assam and identified those already in the state during its second term.
“On May 5, a BJP government will be installed in Assam as well as Bengal. We will drive these people out of the country… This is the land of Bharat and it is not a dharamshala. Infiltrators have no place here,” he said.
The Congress is banking heavily on anti-incumbency and the issue of Garg, a heartthrob of the young generation, while the BJP is pinning its hopes on retaining power, mainly on its popular welfare schemes and development initiatives.
Shah targets Cong over infiltration
Union Home Minister Amit Shah on Tuesday again targetted the Congress over “infiltration”, blaming it for Assam’s “massive demographic change” between 1991 and 2011. Addressing election rallies in Barak Valley on the final day of campaigning for the April 9 polls, Shah alleged that Congress had turned Assam into the main gateway for infiltration, leading to nine districts becoming infiltrator-majority. He claimed the BJP halted infiltration during its first term in Assam (2016–21) and identified those already in the state during its second term (2021–26), adding that the party would expel them over the next five years.