DEHRADUN: Unchecked human activity and rapid urbanisation are pushing the fragile Himalayan ecosystem towards a potential climate crisis, with experts warning that temperatures in the middle and upper regions could rise by 5 to 6 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.
These warnings were issued during a workshop on “Sustainable Infrastructure for Disaster Risk Reduction in the Himalayas” held at the G.B. Pant Institute of Engineering and Technology (GBPIET) in Pauri.
Scientists highlighted that the Himalayan region is warming significantly faster than the global average. This rapid warming is affecting glaciers, snowfall patterns and hydrological cycles. As concrete structures replace traditional settlements, the “heat island effect” is compounding the crisis, along with the shrinking of dense forest cover due to deforestation and frequent wildfires.
The impact is already visible. The snowline, which earlier saw snowfall at around 2,000 metres, has shifted to approximately 2,500 metres. This change is drying up natural water springs and streams and affecting the production of cold-climate crops such as apples and pears.
Climate change has also altered the timing of Western Disturbances, which are crucial for winter precipitation. Earlier active from December to February, these systems are now occurring between February and April.
“Late snowfall is far less effective in replenishing glaciers, meaning our vital water sources are not recovering as they should,” a scientist said. Data collected over the last century shows that the Himalayas are losing glacial mass at an alarming rate. Studies conducted over the past five years indicate that several glaciers have retreated by 15 to 20 metres.
“Temperature rise and human activity are causing glaciers to shrink rapidly,” said Dr Narendra Singh, a senior scientist at ARIES, Nainital. “Establishing a balance between development and the environment is non-negotiable, otherwise the long-term consequences will be irreversible.”
While there is broad agreement on rising temperatures, the urgency of the situation remains under academic discussion. Global records show that the Earth’s average temperature has increased by 1°C since the Industrial Revolution, with the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projecting a further 1.5°C rise by 2030.
The Himalayan region remains particularly vulnerable. A 1°C increase could significantly reduce its snowpack, which has already declined by around 36 per cent over the past three decades, according to research by Prof Vishwambhar Prasad Sati and Surajit Banerjee.
However, offering a measured view, Prof Sati, a scholar of Himalayan studies, said, “The situation is certainly concerning, but it has not yet reached a critical tipping point.”