KOCHI: India’s spice economy is entering a phase of recalibration in 2025-26, with production swings across chilli, turmeric and ginger reshaping supply equations and price trends.
Crop intelligence presented at the International Spice Conference (ISC 2026) in Kochi points to a year marked by tighter availability in chilli, a supply rebound in turmeric, and continued global pressure on ginger amid China’s expanding footprint.
India remains the world’s largest producer, consumer and exporter of spices, with exports crossing 1.8 million tonnes last year and valued at over USD 4 billion — figures that underline both the country’s dominance and its sensitivity to production cycles. Within this broader landscape, however, individual commodities are moving in divergent directions.
Chilli, of which India produces roughly 2 million metric tonnes annually, is staring at a steep 35–40 per cent production decline this season. Reduced acreage and weather variability across Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Karnataka have curbed output, even as sowing extended into October-November.
Harvest arrivals have been lower than anticipated, tightening spot availability. Although carry-forward stocks are estimated to be 8–10 per cent higher year-on-year, trade estimates indicate effective supply could still shrink by nearly 30 per cent due to acreage cuts.
After a weak phase earlier in 2025 when high inventories weighed on prices, the market has firmed up since January as arrivals disappointed expectations. Export demand has remained steady, with China emerging as a significant buyer in recent seasons, lending additional support to prices.
Turmeric markets, which witnessed a sharp rally in 2024-25 following a smaller 2023 crop and depleted stocks, are now turning supply-positive. India, which accounts for nearly 80 per cent of global turmeric output, is expected to see production rise about 15 per cent in 2026, driven by a 20 per cent expansion in acreage, particularly in Maharashtra.
Excess rainfall, however, has trimmed yields by around 5 per cent in certain regions and raised localized concerns. Prices have corrected roughly 16 per cent since mid-2024 as output improved and expectations of a larger crop were priced in. Even so, inventories remain relatively tight after exports climbed 11 per cent last year while imports fell sharply.
Market participants say rebuilding meaningful buffer stocks will be crucial to reducing speculative volatility in the upcoming cycle.
Ginger presents a more complex picture. India remains the world’s second-largest producer at around 2 million metric tonnes, but output has declined nearly 12 per cent this season due to lower acreage. With almost 90 per cent of production consumed domestically, export exposure is limited, though that also constrains stock flexibility.
Shipments remain volatile and are heavily dependent on Bangladesh, which accounts for nearly 80 per cent of exports. Dry ginger exports surged in 2025, tightening domestic stocks even as fresh production recovered.
At the same time, India’s pricing power is increasingly influenced by China, which produces close to 6 million tonnes and dominates global fresh ginger exports. As China expands supply and strengthens export infrastructure, Indian prices remain sensitive to Chinese release cycles, while compliance challenges continue to limit access to premium Western markets.
As the 2025-26 season unfolds, India’s spice basket reflects a broader theme of adjustment — tighter chilli supplies firming prices, turmeric output stabilising markets after a rally, and ginger navigating global competition. For traders and exporters, the year ahead will hinge on inventory rebuilding, weather patterns and shifting global demand — variables that continue to shape the world’s largest spice economy.