NEW DELHI: India’s position as the world’s sixth-largest nuclear power has not changed over the past year, but the risks surrounding its nuclear posture have grown sharply as cyber, space, and information warfare blur the line between conventional conflict and nuclear escalation. This warning comes from Addressing Multidomain Nuclear Escalation Risk, published by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) in January 2026.
The study emphasises that nuclear danger is less about warhead numbers and more about how quickly crises can spiral across multiple domains. Analysts at SIPRI, RAND, and CSIS note that escalation risk increasingly arises from non-nuclear actions—cyber intrusions, satellite interference, or precision strikes—rather than explicit nuclear threats. This underlines why traditional warhead rankings can be misleading.
For India, this multidomain reality matters directly. Military actions that appear limited on land, at sea, or in the air can now spill into cyber networks, satellites, and information systems closely tied to nuclear command and control. In a crisis, leaders may have minutes, not hours, to judge intent, raising the risk of miscalculation with human consequences.
South Asia, SIPRI notes, is among the fastest-escalating nuclear regions, where short conventional clashes can quickly generate nuclear signalling. Studies from Carnegie Endowment and the SIPRI Yearbook highlight the region’s vulnerabilities: short decision timelines, limited crisis hotlines, and frequent conventional contact between India and Pakistan. India’s global rank remains sixth, unchanged from last year, with an estimated 180 nuclear warheads.
Pakistan follows at seventh, with around 170 warheads. While nuclear confidence-building measures exist, analysts note that no formal escalation management frameworks cover cyber, space, or information operations, leaving gaps in crisis control.
Above India and Pakistan, China continues to pull away. Its arsenal is now estimated at around 600 warheads, a growth tied to satellite resilience, missile defences, and counterspace capabilities, which affect India’s threat perception.
At the top, Russia and the US remain first and second, together holding over 10,000 nuclear weapons. While their rankings appear stable, this stability is deceptive: the erosion of New START and the absence of successor agreements are increasing global spillover risks, normalising arms racing and opacity.
New START, a bilateral arms control treaty signed in 2010 and extended until 2026, limits each side to 1,550 deployed warheads and 700 deployed delivery systems, with verification through inspections, data exchanges, and notifications. Analysts say the treaty is crucial for stabilising global nuclear postures, and its weakening raises risks not only for the US and Russia but also for other nuclear-armed states, including India and China.
Military operations in cyber and space are increasingly intersecting with nuclear infrastructure. Cyber intrusions, satellite disruptions, or precision strikes on dual-use facilities may be interpreted as preparations for a nuclear attack. AI-driven decision support further compresses crisis response times and increases automation bias, reducing room for human judgement.