SRINAGAR: After recording a warm winter and an unusual rise in temperatures in February and March, Jammu and Kashmir is all set to experience winter-like conditions for a week from March 15.
According to independent weather forecaster Aadil Maqbool, winter-like conditions are expected from March 15 to 20 as two back-to-back Western disturbances are expected over J&K.
There is a possibility of rain in the plains and snowfall in higher areas around March 15, 16 and 18-20.
According to Aadil, day temperatures would drop noticeably due to clouds and precipitation.
“Overall, a temporary return of cold weather is expected during this period,” he said.
After the warm winter, the Valley witnessed unprecedented heat and a rise in temperature in February and March, which triggered early almond and tulip blooms, signalling the arrival of spring.
The Badawari (almond garden) has also been thrown open ahead of its scheduled time, while the Tulip garden will be open to visitors on March 15, at least 10 days earlier than usual.
Due to the warm winter, J&K recorded its seventh consecutive winter rainfall deficit with the core winter period of December 2025 to February 2026 ending 65 per cent below normal.
As per the data compiled by independent weather forecaster Arif Faizan, J&K received only 100.6 mm of precipitation from Dec 2025–Feb 26 as against a normal of 284.9 mm, marking one of the driest winters in recent record.
The sharp shortfall was largely driven by an exceptionally dry and warm February, which saw rainfall collapse by nearly 90 percent.
According to the data, December 2025 recorded only 13.0 mm of precipitation as against a normal of 59.4 mm, a deficit of 78 percent.
The deficits over the past seven winters have steadily deepened: minus 20 percent (2019–20), minus 37 percent (2020–21), minus 8 percent (2021–22), minus 34 percent (2022–23), minus 54 percent (2023–24), minus 45 percent (2024–25), and now minus 65 percent (2025–26).
Since 2019 the pattern has shifted markedly toward persistent deficit rainfall, with only 2021–22 coming close to normal.
Experts have warned that repeated winter shortfalls weaken the snowpack and reduce the natural melt water buffer that the region relies on during late spring and summer.