That Kashmir tops the agenda of the Narendra Modi government in his second term is too evident. If earlier the BJP shared power with the PDP in what turned out to be a failed venture but nevertheless helped it establish its roots in the state, the attempt now is to clearly form the first “Hindu” government in a ‘Muslim’ State.
Conversations with top-ranking leaders of the ruling party revealed the thought process: a) the question of talks, if any, will arise only if the fundamental premise is accepted – that J&K is an integral part of India and no outside force should have any role; b) that special provisions in the Constitution, Article 35A in respect of Kashmir or similar provisions in the north-east, are the genesis of the problems associated with them.
“When they are very much a part of the country, why is there a need for special provisions which people in other states do not have,” is the argument that is advanced and finds favour with the majority. Article 35A, for instance, enables the J&K Assembly to define a permanent resident, who alone is allowed to own property in the state or get government employment. Since it was introduced in the Constitution by way of a Presidential Order, all it takes is another such order to remove the same. Parallelly, there seems to be some move to concede the long-standing demand for granting Scheduled Tribe status to Pahari Muslims, which could help the BJP gain a foothold in the Valley. It is so far restricted to the Jammu region.
Whether the current build-up in Kashmir has anything to do with the moves afoot is anybody’s guess, but there clearly seems to be something more than meets the eye behind the massive deployment of 35,000 men and the suspension of the Amarnath Yatra, the latter happening for the first time in history. All sorts of rumours are doing the rounds via social media — that both IAF and PAF came within visual distance before being told to back off and that another strike on the neighbouring country could be in the offing. Some are going to the extent of claiming plans by India to wrest PoK, which existed only on paper till now.
A group of journalists who visited the state recently was told by a senior administrator how the focus is on cleansing the governance system. Likening Kashmir to a house eaten by termites, he reportedly cited examples of how banks and other government agencies have been cleansed of corrupt elements. So far so good. But, the larger question remains—how to address the anti-India feeling among a vast majority in the Valley despite hundreds and thousands of crores being pumped in over the years.
To say that any Kashmiri Muslim youth will pelt stones if given Rs 500 or drugs amounts to oversimplification of a complex problem. From one account given by another officer, about 60 lakh firecrackers were burst in the Valley when India lost to New Zealand in the cricket World Cup semi-final. Why there is such a venomous feeling is what needs to be addressed.
It’s the economy, stupid
There is a much bigger crisis brewing on another front — the economy. After all the goody-goody things and dreams Nirmala Sitharaman sold us during the budget on how India wishes to grow in the next five years, the fact is that a slowdown is gripping the economy. Other than those in the government, the crisis is there for everyone to see, so much so that many respected voices have also begun to speak out, particularly after the sad end of CCD founder Siddhartha.
Mohandas Pai, whose support to this government until recently was public knowledge, has turned bitter. In a video interview doing the rounds, he spoke of how corporate India is now scared, how corporates are being silenced using coercive methods and so on. According to him, one caller politely but firmly told him how it is not right for him or Kiran Mazumdar Shah to speak against government policies.
Pai goes on to narrate how some clients have been locked up and even beaten for not complying with “unjust” tax demands, and likens it to abrogation of civil rights. So, it is not just urban Naxals who are denied these rights. They have, for company, corporate heads!! “We can pay tax only when we make more profit. And, that will happen only when there is economic growth. How can higher taxes be paid when there is no growth?” he asks, lamenting that once Arun Jaitley spoke of tax terrorism but tax disputes have doubled since the NDA came to power.
Pai is not alone. One of the most respected industry voices, AM Naik of engineering giant L&T, told a channel the other day that the slowdown is real and it may not be prudent to brush it aside. There could be a difference of opinion on how long this will last (that depends on global factors too) but we have no news so far of this government doing something to address it.
While the automobile makers association has already warned of one million jobs being lost owing to sales dropping to historically low levels, Maruti, the largest carmaker, announced retrenchment of six per cent of its temporary workforce even as this report was being typed. Almost every automobile dealer resorted to job cuts in the last three to four months and it can only be a matter of time before the fear spreads and banks tighten liquidity further, leading to a cascading effect. If we are currently saddled with only corporate defaults, it could be mayhem if it happens in retail too.
A member of the senior management of a top non-banking finance company mentioned in a conversation a couple of days ago he was not sure if he would keep his job two months from now because the line of financing was getting broken. As banks have more or less stopped financing NBFCs, the latter, in turn, are losing the capacity to fund multiple sectors dependent on them. That could mean stalling of projects, job losses and so on. The crisis is real and the sooner we realise this the better.