Telangana Finance Minister T Harish Rao’s last budget in the BRS government’s second term is pragmatic for the most part, unrealistic to an extent, but by no stretch of the imagination an election statement—although the state will be going to polls later this year. The Rs 2.9-lakh crore budget carries forward the government’s welfare agenda just as in the previous fiscal but appears to have been crafted keeping in mind fiscal constraints. So, if Chief Minister K Chandrashekar Rao’s brainchild Dalit Bandhu, under which the beneficiaries receive Rs 10 lakh each, has received an allocation of Rs 17,700 crore, the crop loan waiver has been allotted Rs 6,385 crore. The obvious inference being the government’s realisation that polls or no polls, it has no magic wand to write off thousands of crores.
If we look at the stats, priority has been given to agriculture and the various welfare schemes like the one mentioned above and Rythu Bandhu, among others. And, importantly, no new schemes have been announced. The government must be commended for not giving in to the temptation of an election year to throw fiscal prudence to the winds. But to carry on with the existing schemes itself is a challenge. Yes, the economy is picking up fast. The state’s GSDP grew by 7.4 per cent and is expected to pick up further. The finance minister’s revenue estimates sound reasonable, even if a wee bit optimistic.
He has calculated a Rs 4,881.74 crore surplus on the expected revenues. The problem arises because of certain assumptions. For instance, grants-in-aid from the Centre are expected to be around Rs 41,000 crore and over Rs 17,000 crore from Andhra Pradesh in outstanding dues. These are unlikely to materialise as anticipated. Logically, as the fiscal year draws close, we may expect either the expenditure to be less or borrowings to be more. As per the revised estimates, the government hasn’t spent as it had proposed last year. For instance, till December last year, capital expenditure was just around 42 per cent. The same appears to be the case under quite a few heads.
In the final analysis, the budget is a statement of intent. The finance minister’s intentions are evident: stay the course and focus on welfare. If he succeeds in the same while reaching the target of a 3.5 per cent fiscal deficit, it would be a job done well.