BENGALURU: Congress, being the ruling party, has an edge over the opposition BJP-JDS alliance in the November 13 bypolls to Channapatna, Shiggaon and Sandur Assembly constituencies, but it all depends on the choice of candidates and the strategy.
Going by the data from this year’s Lok Sabha elections, the grand old party has improved its votebase by garnering over 85,000 votes against BJP-JDS alliance’s 1.25 lakh votes.
With Channapatna, if BJP MLC CP Yogeshwara is denied the NDA ticket and he decides to contest as an independent, the triangular fight could help Congress romp home. Leaders from both BJP and JDS have realised this and are trying to convince Yogeshwara to adhere to the NDA pact, even if the ticket is denied to him.
In any bypoll, the ruling party has an advantage and voters too bless such candidates eyeing development work in their constituency, a political analyst said. Deputy Chief Minister DK Shivakumar, who has a personal interest in the Channapatna constituency, it being close to his home turf, announced development projects worth over Rs 500 crore ahead of the Election Commission declaring the elections.
In Shiggaon, Congress had taken an 8,500-vote lead against BJP in the Lok Sabha election. The polarisation of AHINDA votes had helped then. This time, BJP is fielding former chief minister and Haveri MP Basavaraj Bommai’s son Bharat, a Veerashaiva Lingayat, and hopes to get Hindu votes polarised in his favour.
If Congress fields either a Veerashaiva Lingayat or candidate from any other Hindu community, there would be a tough fight. If it chooses a minority candidate, BJP is likely to have an edge, a Congress leader, who is a Veerashaiva Lingayat in Haveri, told TNIE. He also expressed his skepticism over “adjustment” politics, where Congress leaders could pick a ‘dummy’ candidate to help Bharat. “If Shivakumar takes it as a prestige issue, we can win Haveri,” he remarked.
In Sandur, either MP E Tukaram’s wife E Annapoorna or daughter Souparnika could be the candidate. Despite factors like anti-incumbency and groupism within the local Congress unit, the family candidate could have an edge as BJP candidate Bangara Hanumanta is a relative novice. This constituency is Congress’ stronghold as it has won the seat 14 times and Tukaram four times consecutively. The vote bank of AHINDA communities is an added advantage and CM Siddaramaiah’s prestige will be at stake.