BENGALURU: Last week, Karnataka’s political landscape underwent a paradigm shift with the smooth transition of power from AHINDA champion Siddaramaiah to Vokkaliga leader DK Shivakumar; AHINDA is Kannada acronym for minorities, backward classes and Dalits.
The ruling Congress heaved a sigh of relief as confusion over change in leadership, which had lingered for a year, cleared and the new government hit the ground running, eager to overcome anti-incumbency against the previous regime led by Siddaramaiah. The change has redrawn caste equations, forcing the opposition BJP-JDS alliance to go back to the drawing board and rework their strategy for the 2028 assembly polls.
On the organisational front, the Congress has brought in senior leader BK Hariprasad as part of its backward classes outreach, to compensate for the exit of Siddaramaiah.
Vokkaliga-AHINDA combo
Ahead of the 2028 elections, the Congress appears to have resorted to a conservative gameplan of shoring up its AHINDA votebank along with Vokkaliga support, and is expecting a considerable shift of the community vote in its favour with young and dynamic leader DK Shivakumar at the helm. Having Shivakumar, a man known for mobilising resources, as the engine will reduce KPCC president BK Hariprasad’s burden to a large extent.
Shivakumar has proved that he can connect with traditional voters -- in the 2023 assembly polls the party won a considerable number of seats in Old Mysuru region -- and the young, who look on him as an aspirational leader with another decade of active politics left in him.
Shivakumar has a little less than two years in office, which is not a short time for him to calibrate his style of administration. In his outreach to youngsters of all communities, he has announced free bus passes to students.
The CM is looking to organise the youth, having announced the establishment of 10,000 Bharat Jodo Youth Clubs (Yuvaka Sanghas) and provide Rs 10 lakh to each village panchayat and urban ward. Both these initiatives will help the Congress catch the young and inculcate the party ideology in them.
The soft Hindutva approach that Shivakumar has adopted is likely to diffuse the contentious issue of minority appeasement associated with the Congress, leaving the BJP with no scope to go aggressive on it.
A different challenge could come from BK Hariprasad, who is vocal in expressing anti-RSS sentiments. This could give the BJP the chance to corner the Congress on Hindutva issues. Hariprasad had stated that more than power, pursuing the Congress ideology is important for him. Home Minister Priyank Kharge’s forthright approach may also trigger controversies, claim political analysts.
Shivakumar’s gameplan is to ensure that the Hindu votebank is not polarised in the BJP’s favour. His approach seems inclusive and this was evident by the scores of Hindu religious heads at his swearing-in ceremony.
BJP may look towards AHINDA
The saffron party is highly dependent on Veerashaiva Lingayat votes, with community strongman and former CM BS Yediyurappa’s son BY Vijayendra as state unit president. With AHINDA leader Siddaramaiah no longer the CM, the BJP is likely to put its fingers into the Congress’ basket. Hariprasad, who hails from the backward Idiga community, is no match for Siddaramaiah.
The BJP has an advantage in North Karnataka but it cannot take backward classes and Dalit votes for granted as the Congress high command could still make use of Siddaramaiah during elections.
The party does not have a strong backward classes leader as a counter, having dismissed former minister KS Eshwarappa from the party a couple of years ago, and will now have to scout for a suitable leader.
The party, which had hoped the JDS would bring in Vokkaliga votes in good proportion, is having second thoughts after the elevation of DK Shivakumar as CM. Whether Opposition leader in the Assembly R Ashoka can retain the Vokkaliga vote remains the big question.
Senior leader and party spokesperson Ashwathnarayan Gowda is of the opinion that Shivakumar does not have hold sway over Vokkaliga voters. “Shivakumar is not a mass leader and he will emerge big only if he clinches power for the Congress in the 2028 assembly polls,” he said.
He claimed that the failure of the government, including Shivakumar as Bengaluru Development Minister, will backfire on the Congress and this will be evident in the forthcoming Greater Bengaluru Authority polls. Residents of Bengaluru are left in the lurch over regularisation of properties, and conversion of B-Khata to A-Khata, he said.
The BJP’s biggest challenge is to resolve alleged internal bickering, put an end to factionalism and set a narrative against the ruling Congress in Karnataka by taking up the issues of the public. Vijayendra has to take along seniors in the party who have been sulking over his leadership.
JDS U-turn on secularism?
To counter DK Shivakumar’s soft Hindutva and Vokkaliga appeal, the JDS may be forced to get back some semblance of its earlier secular image. If at all, Shivakumar’s elevation could have a direct impact on the JDS, though former PM HD Deve Gowda remains an undisputed Vokkaliga leader. The stalwart has considerable hold over the community, but since age is not on his side he cannot campaign as aggressively as he used to.
Union Minister HD Kumaraswamy, who is the JDS’ chief ministerial face, could ensure that the party retains its Vokkaliga votebank, but the community may start comparing him with DK Shivakumar, who will also be in the 2028 poll race.
If the JDS continues its alliance with the BJP, it may have to depend on the saffron party for transfer of votes in its favour in the Old Mysuru belt, while its bargaining power over seat-sharing could drop. The JDS is also mulling projecting youth wing chief Nikhil Kumaraswamy as a youth icon, though he has been an electoral failure, on the lines of Tamil Nadu CM and TVK chief Joseph Vijay, according to sources.
“Despite having a clean image, former CM late SM Krishna could not emerge as a mass leader. Shivakumar, who is known for not favouring farmers, cannot be a real Vokkaliga community leader. There were umpteen examples, including the Bidadi township project,” alleged JDS spokesperson Gangadhara Murthy. “I cannot deny he will try to attract our votes, but we will compensate for the loss. If 5 per cent of our votes shift to the Congress, 25 per cent of AHINDA votes will come to us as Siddaramaiah has been removed without reason,” he claimed.
He clarified that the JDS, albeit an NDA partner, has never gone against the Muslim community, or instigated any communal clashes. After the Davanagere South bypoll controversy which led to Muslim leaders being sidelined, the community is looking at an alternative political force to identify with, as the Congress has taken their votes for granted, he commented.
“It has been proven that the combination of the largest communities, Veerashaiva Lingayats and Vokkaligas, has worked tremendously for political parties. Besides, the breakup of AHINDA votes is an added advantage for the BJP-JDS alliance,” he said.
Political scientist Dr Sandeep Shastri said the appointment of DK Shivakumar as Chief Minister will directly impact the JDS. “This leadership change provides the Congress with the potential to swing Vokkaliga support in its favour. In recent elections, the Vokkaliga vote underwent a three-way split, with the Congress performing reasonably well,” he remarked.
He was skeptical whether the BJP and JDS will maintain their alliance for the 2028 assembly elections. “While their alliance functions for Lok Sabha elections, the JDS will have much higher expectations on seat-sharing in the assembly elections. It remains uncertain if the BJP concedes to these expectations, leaving a big question mark on vote transfers in Old Mysuru region,” Shastri said.
“No doubt Siddaramaiah will play his role in state politics as he has decided not to switch to national politics. He will be an important force in state politics. Congress’ dependence on the OBC vote will largely depend on how much he is able to bring to the party table,” he remarked.