BELAGAVI, BENGALURU : The Congress’ strength which is deeply rooted in the AHINDA vote-base in Karnataka will certainly take a severe blow if Siddaramaiah steps down as CM at this crucial juncture, several AHINDA leaders across the state who are against Siddaramaiah’s exit say.
Including the Jarkiholi brothers, many backward class leaders express concern over the developments unfolding in the state, triggering fresh political debate.
AHINDA leader and MLC Lakhan Jarkiholi said the AHINDA vote base— minorities, backward classes and Dalits— which stood firmly behind Siddaramaiah’s leadership will take a hit with his exit from the top post.
He maintained that the Congress’ impressive victory in the 2023 Assembly elections and its recent bypoll successes were largely driven by Siddaramaiah’s mass appeal and the consolidation of AHINDA votes in favour of the party.
Another top Congress leader said that if Siddaramaiah resigns as CM under the current political circumstances, the Congress will suffer irreparable damage in the state. He further claimed that any shift in leadership could alienate the AHINDA communities from the party, severely impacting its electoral prospects in the 2028 Assembly elections. “Without Siddaramaiah’s leadership and AHINDA support, Congress may struggle even to cross 40 seats in the next Assembly polls,” he added.
The AHINDA unit is urging Siddaramaiah not to resign in the larger interest of the party and complete the term to eventually bolster party’s prospects ahead of the next assembly elections.
The open support of AHINDA to Siddaramaiah comes at a time when intense political speculation is underway within the Congress over leadership change and internal power-sharing arrangements in Karnataka.
Meanwhile, Backward Classes leaders have warned the Congress top brass that any move to force Siddaramaiah to step down will be met with strong protests and could trigger a significant erosion of community support for the party.
Backward Classes Federation leader KM Ramachandrappa issued a stern warning on Wednesday, stating that the community, which forms a crucial pillar of the Congress’ social base in the state, will not remain silent.
He pointed out that nearly 70% of the Backward Classes community traditionally identifies with the Congress, but cautioned that this support base could shrink considerably in the coming days if the leadership ignores their sentiments.
Political analysts say Siddaramaiah remains the tallest and most credible leader among the backward classes in Karnataka, and his exit could seriously damage the Congress’ prospects in future elections.
Political analyst BS Murthy noted that the Congress would do well to accommodate Siddaramaiah in a prominent position rather than pushing him out.
“Siddaramaiah is crucial for the Congress due to the AHINDA factor. The party must learn from history,” he said, recalling the dramatic loss of Lingayat support after the removal of former CM Veerendra Patil. That episode significantly weakened the Congress in northern Karnataka for years. A similar alienation of Backward Classes now could prove even more costly given their larger demographic weight.
However, not all voices support continued resistance to a leadership change.
Eminent academician Prof PS Jayaramu has advised Siddaramaiah to exit gracefully while his popularity is at its zenith. “Siddaramaiah should go when the going is good for him. He has completed three years in office, served as the longest-serving Chief Minister of the state, the economy is doing relatively well, and he continues to enjoy immense popularity across Karnataka,” he said.
The academic suggested a smooth transition would allow Siddaramaiah to secure a cabinet berth for his son in the new government and position himself for a larger national role. “It is time Siddaramaiah enters national politics by getting into the Rajya Sabha. He can effectively take on the Union Government on key economic issues and champion the rights of states in our federal polity,” he added.
For the High Command, the dilemma is clear: ignoring the backward classes’ warning could lead to a steady erosion of the AHINDA vote bank, while retaining Siddaramaiah might fuel internal factionalism from other aspirants.